Here is the current situation on Thursday morning. While the storm is still spinning over northern Utah, it is finally pushing cold air and snow east into Colorado.

The regional radar shows a line of steady snow moving across Colorado with showers extending back through northern Utah.

And zooming into Colorado, you can see the line of snow moving through the mountains. The radar loop below starts at about 4am and end at about 6am.

Expect steadier snow on Thursday morning as this line moves through, then more showery snow for the rest of Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night. During this showery period, the wind will blow from the west and this should favor areas like Steamboat, maybe the Sunlight/Aspen/Irwin area, and perhaps even Telluride if enough moisture and energy drops that far south.

Total precipitation amounts from Thursday morning through Friday night should range from about 0.75 inches in the northern mountains around Steamboat to 0.3 - 0.5 inches elsewhere. Multiply these numbers by about 15 to estimate snow … which equates to about 5-10 inches.

Below is the NCAR ensemble forecast for Copper Mountain (this is one of the few mountain points where we can see a specific forecast from the NCAR model). The range is about 5-9 inches with an average of 7 inches. The time scale on the bottom is in GMT – subtract 7 hours to get our time here in Colorado.

On Saturday we should see a break in the snow.

Then a weak storm will move across the state on Saturday night and Sunday. All mountains could see anywhere from a few snow flurries to a couple of inches … the jury is still out on this one.

A stronger storm should hit Colorado on Sunday night or Monday morning, with snow continuing through Wednesday morning.

Initially the heaviest snow should fall in the southern mountains on Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with the best snow in the central and northern mountains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Interestingly, the European model is still excited about heavy snowfall in the southern mountains on Monday into Tuesday, but the Canadian and American models are uncertain about this.

Below is the University of Utah ensemble forecast, using the Canadian and American models, for Coal Bank Pass in the southern mountains. Notice the wide range of outcomes on Monday and Tuesday, anywhere from 5 inches to over 2 feet.

After the storm next Monday to Wednesday, it now looks like the storm that was possible during March 3-5 will stay to our north and east, and we might see a drier period in Colorado during early March. The models all flipped to this drier forecast in the past 24 hours, and we’ll see if they keep trending toward dry or if they flip back toward cold and snowy.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains