An unsettled pattern will take shape this weekend. Expect cooler weather through next week with periods of valley rain and snowfall above about 6,000 feet. An inch or so of accumulation each day is expected in the high country with showers in the lowlands. Mountain temperatures are already near freezing each night now, but next week we will see readings dropping down into the 20’s. High temperatures will only reach the mid 40’s which is about 10 degrees below normal.
Short Term Forecast
Fall is in the air, snow is in the forecast Photo courtesy Sawtooth Mountain Guides
This will be the warmest day for quite a while with the last bites of high-pressure overhead. By tonight, this will give way as a cold front nudges in from the west with breezy winds and showers pushing through. Here’s how the pattern looks from space. Notice the moisture band stretching along the Pacific Coastline (in Blue colors)? That’s what is headed our way, with the main upper-level storm system further west (in Black colors)
GOES-West Water Vapor Satellite Imagery, Courtesy NOAA
Saturday through Thursday, October 5
A cold front will push through the state tomorrow ushering in a low-pressure system from the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a pattern of cool and moist weather that should persist at least through mid-week. Temperatures will be below seasonal normals for the beginning of October. That means a re-charge of the soil with several days of light precipitation. Long duration, light rain, and snow are far more beneficial than heavy storms that pass through.
Here’s a preview of how much accumulation is expected with the Idaho Central Mountains getting half an inch to an inch (in Blue colors):
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center Forecast Accumulated Precipitation
Through next Thursday
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is telling us some good news for the first half of October in their 8 to 14-day Outlook. We’re poised to see cooler and wetter weather heading into fall. You’ll notice that this is different than what was posted last week for the monthly outlook, which just goes to show you how dynamic this transitional season is. Forecasting long-term weather during the switch from summer to winter is uncertain at best.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center Outlook for the first half of October
Temperatures (Below Normal inBlue) and Precipitation (Above Normal in Green)
I’ll be updating the Idaho forecast weekly, but for a bigger picture look, please refer to:
Thank you for Reading!
Happy New Year! Did you know that Sunday, October 1st marks the beginning of a new “Water Year”? In hydrology terms and for water supply forecasters this is important. Read why here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_year . The water year summaries for all of the USGS measuring sites will be available soon. Stay tuned!
Best in the West: Ski Magazine’s reader-ranked survey puts Sun Valley Resort at #2
Friday-Sunday Gravity Games at Bogus Basin this weekend: Free to Spectators
Monday, October 2nd 7pm McCall Winter Sports Club Information Night
Brundage Adventure Center in Alpine Village Parking Lot
Saturday, October 14: Sun Valley Opera House film: Good Company’s: “Guest List”
Countdown to the Winter Olympics - Beginning February 9, 2018
At least 3 Idaho athletes are vying to compete in the Winter Games in skiing and snowboarding events. Stay tuned for more information or check out the website
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