Photo courtesy Schweitzer Mountain Resort – Opening Day next weekend

 

Pre-Season Snow Roundup

Current snow depths in the Idaho mountains are running well-above normal in most places.  Here are readings from a few NRCS SNOTEL sites:

Site                                  Snow Depth           % of Normal

Schweitzer                        18”                         93%

Brundage                          21”                         273%

Tamarack                         13”                         340%

Bogus Basin                      8”                           300%

Jackson Peak                   17”                         206%

Vienna Mine                      22”                         152%

Galena Summit                 17”                         189%

 

So far this Fall started out drier than last year with much less precipitation in October compared with 2016.  We have made up for lost time in November, however. Take a look below at the seasonal snow depth for today, compared to November 11, 2016. Blue colors generally represent high elevation snow depths of 20 to 30 inches, while brown and green colors are dry ground.    

Snow depth comparison November 11, 2017 (left)  to 1 year ago (right). Darkest blue colors represent snow depth up to 20 inches. Courtesy NOAA OWP

 

Now for fun, let’s look at a time lapse of the snow depth so far this season:

Short Term Forecast

This Week

The feature that will drive our weather this week is the dark black trough located off the West coast in the satellite picture below. This is a water vapor picture taken from space that indicates areas with the highest moisture content in dark blue. Note the storm that moved through us last night is now in Southwest Montana.

Expect impulses of moisture and a couple weak cold fronts to move through during the upcoming week ahead.  More specifically, the next round of snowfall will arrive late Monday with high elevation areas receiving several inches of new powder. Below 5,000 feet or so it will be rain to re-charge the upper crust of the soil.  Another storm will make its way through Idaho on Thursday, but this time we will see snow down to the valley floors, with snow levels between 3,000 and 4,000 feet. That includes areas like Idaho City and McCall for sure, where snowshoeing and Nordic skiing will help you dust off your ski legs for things to come.

GOES-West Water Vapor Satellite Imagery, Courtesy NOAA

 

Here’s a preview of how much accumulation is expected through the next 7 days. Looks like Northern Idaho will see the highest amounts with up to a couple feet, which is good news for Schweitzer as they focus on opening day next weekend. The Idaho Central Mountains will also start piling up this week:

GFS Computer 7 Day Modeled Forecast Accumulated Snowfall through Saturday

 

Sunday, November 19 through Thanksgiving

More of the same is expected for the next 8 to 14 days as another strong trough of low pressure will be positioned off the coast to drive in periods of precipitation and near normal temperatures. Here’s the way it looks in terms of the upper atmospheric pattern according to an ensemble approach. That means we take several computer models and combine their solutions to get an overall feel for what is in store as we head toward opening day.

GEFS (ensemble) 5-day Forecast – Notice the deep trough extending from the West coast all the way through Alaska (in Blue and Purple)

 

The Bigger Picture Winter Outlook – La Nina is here!

As expected, this week NOAA issued a La Nina Advisory based on conditions shaping up to bring us cooler and wetter conditions this season.  Take a look at a few of the graphics below for a big picture at where Idaho lies in terms of probabilities compared to other seasons with more than 20 La Nina winters since 1950. It’s important to note that WEAK La Nina events have statistically favored higher snow seasons in Idaho, and this is expected to do the same. I hope you got your season pass already, hint/wink!

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/winter-coming-noaa%E2%80%99s-2017-2018-winter-outlook

 

Thank you for Reading. I hope that you are amped for the upcoming season like I am.

My next forecast update will be next weekend, prior to Thanksgiving week, with daily forecasts thereafter. In the meantime, be sure to get the Opensnow app dialed in for your favorite resorts so you don't miss a thing.

 

Coleen

Thursday-Saturday November 16-18 Warren Miller’s “Line of Descent” in Boise

http://egyptiantheatre.net/event/warren-millers-line-of-descent/

 

Saturday November 18 Schweitzer Mountain Opening Day!

https://www.schweitzer.com/

 

Wednesday November 22 7pm Matchstick Productions Premier ski movie

“Drop Everything” – Sun Valley Opera House

https://www.sunvalley.com/things-to-do/events-calendar

 

Thursday November 23 Sun Valley opening day – 82^nd Season!

https://www.sunvalley.com/

 

Saturday and Sunday November 24-25 -Brundage Mountain Easy Street Preview

https://brundage.com/event/easy-street-preview/2017-11-24/

 

Countdown to the Winter Olympics - Beginning February 9, 2018

At least 3 Idaho athletes are vying to compete in the Winter Games in skiing and snowboarding events. Stay tuned for more information or check out the website

https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018