Update Thursday Morning:

Forecast models a teeny bit wetter and colder this morning.  Instead of a coating to an inch of snow on the mountain we could see 1-3 inches tomorrow morning.  Then warm weather starts this weekend through next week.

From Wednesday:

We have been tracking a storm for the end of this week over the past 2 weeks now.  Up through the Monday post I was forecasting that most of the precip would stay to the North of the Mammoth area.  That is still the case today, but we may not stay completely dry.

For today it will still be beautiful outside with sun and highs in the 50's on the mountain, and 60's on town.  That will begin to change tomorrow as the winds pick up with gusts over 30 mph by afternoon, and highs several degrees cooler than today.  It will feel colder with the wind.

The (weak) Storm:

Thursday night into Friday a cold front moves through bringing precipitation to Northern CA.  But it looks like most of it will break up by the time the precip reaches Southern Mono County.  The latest 12z GFS run is one of the wettest in the past 24 hours, but still only shows up to a tenth to maybe a couple tenths of an inch of liquid as far South as Mammoth.

Snow levels start as high as 11,000 feet Thursday night before falling to near 9,000 feet Friday morning, and then maybe below 8,000 feet after the front clears the area.  With the very little precip amounts expected, I would not expect more than a dusting to a coating on the upper half of the mountain by midday Friday.

Of course we will keep watching the model trend over the next 24 hours, but this looks like more wind and cooler air event than a snow event for the area.  

Post Storm Weather:

The cooler weather won't last long as the ridge of high pressure builds back in this weekend and into next week.

Temperatures will be back into the 60's even on the mountain for next week.

Beyond a Week:

The next chance for a pattern change could be around the 28th-30th.  Some model runs show a shallower trough for the West Coast for the end of the month, and some a deeper trough.

This time of year the forecast models struggle in the long-range with the change of the seasons and with the typhoon activity in the Pacific that can affect the pattern.  Throw in a strong MJO signal that is currently forecast to continue into the Western Pacific later in the month that could affect the pattern. 

So we will have to keep watching the forecast out beyond a week, but right now we could see a change to cooler and more active weather by the end of the month.

November:

November could start to become more active as well, with the long-range of the model runs showing possibly and average precip month even for Central CA and even South of Mammoth.  

We'll see....  But it's definitely more interesting than a dry forecast!  Let's hope for a good November to kickoff the season!

BA