Storm Recap:

We finally got a moderate size storm after over a month of small storms. The cold front pushed in heavy snow starting around 10 AM NW of the lake and 1-2 hours later to the south side of the lake. We saw strong wind gusts to 100+ mph over the ridges as the front moved through. Snow showers fired up behind the front overnight, ending around 5 AM. 

The deck at Sierra is looking pretty buried this morning.

We were expecting 11-21 inches of snow on the mountains and reports this morning are 15-25 inches. The temperatures dropped faster than forecast which helped with higher snow ratios. I was saying that if a mountain was going to hit 2 feet it would depend on where the heaviest snow showers fired up behind the front overnight. Watching the radar overnight the best concentration of heavier showers looked to be NW of the lake.

That is where we have 3 mountains reporting 2 feet of snow this morning, at Homewood, Alpine Meadows, and Tahoe Donner. The rest of the ski resorts picked up a nice helping as well. Here are the reports from this morning. This puts us back to 102% of average snowfall for the date.

The reports I've received from readers at lake level so far are 9 inches on the east side of the lake and 14 inches on the west side. The forecast was for 5-15 inches at lake level. Feel free to comment your totals at the bottom for us all to see.

The forecast was for 11-15 inches on the east side of the lake. Mt. Rose & Diamond Peak are reporting 13-15 inches, with Heavenly taking the over at 18 inches. For the west side of the lake, the forecast was for 15-21 inches. Reports are 15-26 inches. We talked about the 3 ski resorts that hit the 2-foot mark. Kirkwood came in an inch short of the forecast as the storm didn't hit quite as hard from there south to Mammoth.

Here is the Keep Me Honest variance report. It compares the final forecast before the storm arrived to the final totals reported by the ski areas after the storm. White = the totals were within the forecast range, Green = totals higher than the forecast range, and Red = totals below the forecast range. I'm usually shooting at a 3-5 inch forecast range.

Overall, I feel like the storm performed as expected with timing, winds, and snowfall amounts, with a little bonus snow for a few mountains. The winds dropped off this morning, temperatures are in the teens, and the sun is coming out. It's the perfect setup for a great powder day!

The Weekend:

For Friday we are expecting partly sunny skies, lighter winds and highs into the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s for lake level.

Saturday through Monday we are expecting partly sunny skies with light winds. Highs into the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s at lake level. Beautiful weather!

Tuesday Storm:

The GFS model was the only model the last couple days showing precip for Monday afternoon, and it has gotten rid of that. All of the forecast models are now converging on the timing and precipitation amounts for the next storm that moves through Tuesday - Tuesday night.

There is still some spread on the models with regards to how much moisture this system holds by the time it reaches the Sierra. Going through the ensemble mean runs, the German, and the Canadian models this morning, the range for total precipitation along the crest was only 0.6 - 0.8 inches. I thought, "wow this is good agreement 4 days out". But then I looked at the GFS model showing double at 1.55 inches, and the European model showing half or less at 0.3 inches. Ugh...

So we still need to fine-tune the forecast as we get closer. The 100 model average this morning is around 0.76 inches of total precipitation near the crest and 0.45 inches on the east side of the lake. The WPC's blended model is closer to an inch due to the wetter model runs like the GFS.

Snow levels under a wetter scenario may start near lake level and drop below 5000 ft. Tuesday night. The drier scenarios may have snow levels just above lake level. Taking the model average and assuming snow levels stay to lake level, here is the initial forecast for this storm.

We will likely have to adjust this as we get closer. The trend has been a bit drier with each model runs, so we will have to see if that continues.

By the middle of next week, we have a weak ridge building in over CA.

Not really strong enough to stop storms from pushing in. The European model is still the outlier showing more storms next Thursday, Saturday, & Sunday. It has agreement from the control runs as well. The rest of the models bump the storm track to our north with a drier pattern Wednesday through next weekend.

Fantasy Range:

Some of the long-range models continue to progress the active phase of the MJO across the Pacific. But the long-range models have been trending towards a ridge sitting just off the West Coast the week of the 27th. Bringing us a dry pattern with the storm track to the north into the Pacific NW.

The European weeklies forecast yesterday had the ridge sitting off the West Coast through February. Back to a pattern of weak systems from the north when we do see storms. Ugh. Hoping that we see some changes in the long-range trend that would bring us a series of stronger storms.

We have been doing pretty well keeping the snowfall right near average on the mountains so far this winter. Let's hope that continues.

Stay tuned...BA

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