After the final tally from the storm yesterday here are the final numbers for the 7 days period ending yesterday.

The mountains South of the lake picked up the forecast amounts from the last storm, and North of the lake the amounts were a bit more than expected.  Here is the keep me honest variance to final forecast report.

We have high pressure over CA today and Wednesday.  That will bring a quick warming trend with lots of sun.

You can see the trough starting to drop Southeast from the Gulf of Alaska.  That will slide down to our East on Thursday.

It should come close enough to at least bring colder air for Thursday.  The model runs are trending drier with the precip from the front as it moves through Thursday.  Snow levels will also be falling from higher elevations and the temperatures will be above freezing.  So I'm not expecting much snowfall.  The best accumulations should be on the mountains on top of the existing snow.

Here is a look at the GFS total precip forecast for Thursday with light amounts similar to the European model runs.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Thursday.  At lake level I don't think much will stick except maybe colder surfaces.

By Friday the ridge of high pressure is back over the area pretty quickly with a warming trend into the weekend.

Looking at the latest ensemble runs there is decent agreement.  That the ridge could break down for next week with a large trough setting up in the Eastern Pacific.  That could open the storm door to some weaker storms to start next week.  We could see a weak storm bring some showers for Monday.  Maybe a dusting on the mountains.

As we go through next week the trough may push into the West Coast and some stronger storms may move across the Pacific towards CA.  

There may be a storm that moves in next Wednesday.  The GFS is drier than the European model but the trend has been a little wetter.  I have several inches of snow on the mountains in the 10 day forecast on the mountain pages for next Wednesday into Wednesday night for now.

You can't trust the models out much more than a week this time of year.  But they are hinting at the possibility of stronger storms at the end of next week into the weekend of the 8th. 

This could be a short lived active pattern of about a week.  A few more chances for a good powder day?

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.