Following a wild week of weather things calm down through a sunny and mild weekend. Northerly winds will be on the increase Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching nasty cold front. Sunday night into Monday the storm sweeps the region with bitter cold winds and inconsequential light snow. High temperatures Monday will be low teens on the slopes, wind chills will near 0 degrees. I would venture to say there will be wind hold issues Monday. 

Sunny conditions persist through next work week. Northeasterly winds may pose issues mid to late week.

Good news is it remains cold, with very cold overnights, low January sun angles and the snow stays in terrific shape.

Not much shaking in the extended. The Pacific ridge remains in tact, cutting off our storm track. What we will be watching for is a low pressure system in the northerly flow to cut off and retrograde into the region, not out of the question as we get into the late month time frame. 

Courtesy Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center

(1/18/2023) Estimated at HS-N-R2-D2-U. Likely failed at depth hoar near the ground, and likely occurred on MLK day, January 16, 2023. Photo: Troy Marino

Sometime around January 16, an approximately 1.5m thick (possibly thicker) hard slab avalanche occurred in the Silverton Avalanche Path on a northeasterly slope of Fremont.  Additionally, a second avalanche from a similar time period was reported in Jay's Slide on the north northwest side of Fremont. Both of these avalanche likely failed in depth hoar near the ground, similar to the HS-N-R3-D3-O avalanche on Fremont, during the New Year’s storm cycle. So far this season, four known persistent slab avalanches have occurred on northeasterly slopes, with starting zones between ~11,400' and ~11,800'. These avalanches have been large and are a major concern for backcountry travelers. Although these are low probability events the consequences are high, with avalanches likely breaking wider, deeper, are running further than you may expect destroying trees that are 30-40 years old.

North, northeast, and northwest slopes near and above treeline should be considered highly suspect and avoided or travelled on with the utmost care and consideration. You are most likely to trigger these avalanches in areas with a shallower snowpack (< 1 meter) where the weight of a traveler can initiate propagation on the weak layer.