Arizona Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Arizona Daily Snow

By Lee Born, Meteorologist Posted 5 months ago November 10, 2023

Season Greetings

Summary

The season is quickly approaching with AZSB planned opening just one week away 11/17. This autumn has been mild and dry for Arizona, though we see some hope on the horizon for welcome moisture in the extended forecast. As I am sure you are aware El Nino conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific, with very warm waters. Will the atmosphere catch on is the big uncertainty.

Short Term Forecast

Overnight temps will continue to be cold enough for snow making operations through the Veteran's Day weekend. Speaking of which, sincere thank you veterans for your service, this lucky life would not be possible without you, and I salute you, I can say that being a veteran myself. Snowmaking will struggle next week with opening day approaching as a very mild airmass moves in ahead of developing Pacific storm system, along with extensive cloud cover overnights will be quite warm. The storm appears poised to move in late week, delivering welcome moisture, though snow levels will be of concern. Details will shake out next week and we will have another look. It will be a challenge getting the Mountain ski/ride ready by 11/17.

Extended Forecast

I assume we are all familiar with graphic above depicting average jet stream patterns associated with El Nino/La Nina events. The science is clear, though not always the case as we saw last La Nina season. Anomalously warm water in the tropical Pacific (El Nino), in theory gives the atmosphere fuel to feed on, enhancing the subtropical jet stream, at times lending to increased storm activity and moisture for the the southern tiers of the US. Conversely cold water lends to enhanced Pacific ridging typically lending to a high amplitude jet avoiding the West. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center still has the region in equal chances for winter precipitation. This will remain the case until a clear coupling between the warm water and the atmosphere is established.

El Nino events will bring us more storm chances than average, though how snowy or wet remains to be seen.We saw what happened in the 2022-23 La Nina event, all time snow, and nobody saw that coming. A friend said it best, a butterfly gets off track and sets the atmosphere into motion in a way nobody or model saw coming. Think snow!

About Our Forecaster

Lee Born

Meteorologist

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