Well this is an interesting and active forecast. And also a bit surprising. Initially (as I mentioned in my last post) we looked like we were going to stay fairly dry after tomorrow's storm. But! The storm tomorrow is coming in stronger than expected, looks like we may get some follow on showers up north through Wednesday, and then some storms all next weekend! Let's get into it.
Short Term Forecast
The storm arriving tomorrow is certainly coming in stronger than originally expected. I expected only a trace of snow to a few inches. After looking over the models tonight and temperatures, I think we get a bit more than that. The storm is moving in from the southwest after plastering the Tahoe area. Temperatures look good (as has been the case lately), and I think Bogus can do really well with a setup like this. The storm will start to impact our area very early morning with a quick burst of snow and will continue with on and off snow through the day. I like 3-6 inches for Bogus and the Boise mountains. Lesser amounts up at Tamarack with 2-4 inches and even less at Brundage with 1-3.
After the main thrust of the storm moves through something interesting has caught my eye. Normally I wouldn't mention it, but it is showing up in all of the models including the short range ones. Our region is going to be sitting between two troughs that is going to shuttle moisture down into our area from the northwest:
Kind of an interesting setup for us because we don't get this sort of "northwest flow" very often. Really I said all that to basically say that you can expect to see on and off showers from Monday through Wednesday. I don't expect alot in the way of accumulation but it will keep conditions pretty fresh. The further north the better as well so we could see some upside surprise at Brundage especially.
You can really see this in the graphic below where the precipitation from the storm tomorrow causes the black line to rise rapidly (black measures the amount of precip) and then there is a gradual increase in precipitation from the northwest flow moving into the area.
Initially it looked like we were going to go dry for a bit. But then the GFS started showing some storms popping up the weekend of December 10th. Remember how I said I wasn't biting yet because it didn't have support from any of the other models or even its ensemble? Well now it does! All models are showing a storm for next Friday that will begin a train of storms that will move through our area. There is disagreement on how strong these storms are but the Euro seems to be pretty bullish!
Let's let models come into a bit more agreement before we start looking at exact numbers.
Conditions are absolutely phenomenal across the area and all of Idaho. Bogus opened all of their backside today which I believe is the earliest they have ever done so! Brundage opened for daily operations on 12/2 and Tamarack opens for daily operations on 12/9. Take advantage of these phenomenal conditions. I don't know where this early season ranks, but I would wager it is one of the best that we have had. Get after it! We all know after last year how quickly things can flip into 2 months of high and dry.