We have an active week or so ahead of us. Nothing too major but the mountains will see a nice refreshing so riding will be pretty good throughout the weekend and into next week. Let's take a gander!
Short Term Forecast
Tomorrow will be beautiful but still a little chilly. By Friday a low pressure trough will move inland and we will start getting showers into the region around mid-day. The showers will be light but will last through the overnight hours and into very early Saturday morning. Accumulations will be light but Tamarack and Brundage should get between 1-3 inches by Saturday morning. Bogus with lesser amounts of a trace to an inch or so.
Another stronger wave will move into the area very late on Saturday and will last all the way through Sunday. This should actually bring along some decent accumulations:
The models do seem pretty bullish for this storm so there is some reason for excitement. Temperatures look great with freezing levels at around 4500ft at Bogus and 4k up in the Long Valley. Through the overnight hours of Saturday and through the day on Sunday I certainly think that 4-8 inches is possible at all areas. The storm is moving in from the southwest so Bogus will pick up some good snow. Tamarack does really well on a west to southwest flow as well. Brundage may get a little less than the other resorts though not by much. Overall a great storm!
The models are really torn on the timing of the next storm. All models are showing next Monday as being dry. The Euro brings in the next storm on Tuesday and it has a bit of an AR look to it. The GFS holds off until Wednesday and it has more of a slider look to it with a quick hit. It does not look like temperatures are going to be an issue either way which is nice.
My personal thinking is that I do not bet against the Euro. It has been pretty stubborn on this look for the last 3-5 runs. The Euro ensembles generally agree with the deterministic run. About half of the GFS and half of the Canadian ensembles agree too. I think we get something next Tuesday and into Wednesday. If we get the full AR like the Euro is showing then we could get some really nice accumulations. Keep next Wednesday in mind if you are thinking you need a mid-week powder day. No promises this far out though!
After that we go quiet again for a while. Longer range models are showing that we should start getting storms back into the area around the 19th or 20th. Do those snow dances and cross your fingers that the Euro model is right!