Boise Region Daily Snow
By Matthew Platt, Forecaster Posted 3 months ago November 30, 2023
Not too many changes from yesterday's forecast. The initial stages of the storm will impact the region later this afternoon and through the overnight hours. The primary storm will start impacting the area around mid-afternoon on Friday. Let's take a look at the details!
Short Term Forecast
Temperatures look great from the storm later this afternoon with temperatures well below average. I do think that the OpenSnow blended forecast is a bit aggressive for totals between tonight and tomorrow. I would lean a bit more conservative with 3-6 inches of blower between tonight and tomorrow at Bogus, Tamarack, and Brundage. There is some upside potential (especially at Bogus) with temperatures so low, but again, I do like to lean a bit more conservative.
We could see a bit of a lull in the storm overnight on Friday. Some of the shorter-range models keep flakes flying at Bogus.
The party really gets cranking on Saturday with heavy snow the entire day. Models are going wild with the amount of precipitation expected. Our internal GFS downscaled is showing over 1 inch of precipitation on Saturday. Temperatures are forecasted to be optimal as well with freezing levels around 3300 feet throughout the day:
Models are calling for another 1 inch of precipitation on Sunday. Unfortunately, we are going to see increasing temperatures through the day with temperatures cracking 6k feet around 5 pm. Temperatures will crest and hold at ~6600 feet until Monday mid-morning when temperatures really soar.
We will see a bit more rain in the mountains than I had initially hoped. Precipitation totals have gone through the roof (see plume below) which means that there will be more rain during the warmest part of the storm. The bolded black line in the plume below is the most recently forecasted ensemble mean.
Forecasting snowfall totals are so hard for a storm like this. I think we could see an easy 15-20 inches of snow in total from Thursday through Sunday late afternoon. We could see another 3-6 inches above 6600 feet with up to a half inch of rain below from Sunday late afternoon to Monday morning.
Luckily it looks like the hose shuts off by Monday mid-morning. Temperatures will skyrocket through the day and freezing levels will hit 9k feet.
My hope is that the snowfall is so heavy overnight from Sunday to Monday that we get some good old-fashioned Sierra concrete down to the base elevation at Bogus. The good news is I don't think we get so much rain that it flushes the snow completely down the drain. It will definitely hurt but it won't be devastating.
My pick for the best time to get after it would be Sunday morning. You will get some great conditions with significant snowfall from the preceding days. Temperatures will be good in the morning as well.
Overall not a bad storm. Do I wish that temperatures were a bit colder? Yes. But we all know that ARs can come in extremely warm and all rain, so 3 solid days of snowfall with a bit of rain at lower elevations isn't the end of the world. Not every season can be the 22-23 winter!!
Unfortunately, it looks like warm air could stick around for a few days from Monday through Thursday (12/4-12/7). The AR is tapping into a significant amount of sub-tropical moisture and with that comes warmer temperatures.
Bleck.... posting that graphic made my stomach hurt.
Both the GFS and European models bring the last vestiges of the AR through our area late Wednesday and early on Thursday (12/6 and 12/7). Temperatures are still going to be warm, so we could end up seeing some rainfall in the mountains. No guarantees yet though since that is still a week away. Cross your fingers and sacrifice anything of worth to whatever snow deity you hold in reverence.
After that.... no idea. It could rain, it could snow, it could be warm, and it could be cold. Let's punt on that for now!
If it's deep enough to ride; it's deep enough to slide! Keep an eye on your local avalanche centers:
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