Boise Region Daily Snow
By Matthew Platt, Forecaster Posted 2 months ago December 1, 2023
The overnight produced solid results with 3.5 inches at Bogus and a bit less at Tamarack and Brundage. Overall not a bad way to start off the storm cycle. I don't see much need to change my last forecast, but the timing has become a bit clearer on the temperature changes.
Short Term Forecast
The next storm to move through the area will impact our area around mid-day today. There is not a lot of moisture associated with this, but the cold temperatures should boost snowfall totals a bit. The storm from last night took a more southerly route whereas today's storm will move more directly from west to east. I believe Tamarack and Brundage will do a bit better than Bogus, but it should still be fairly equal opportunity. Let's say that 2-4 inches of snowfall will fall today with the higher totals up north (north for us being Tamarack and Brundage).
The first of the upcoming AR events will nose into the area early Saturday morning. I don't see much need to update storm totals. Temperatures will be good for the entire day Saturday so snowfall numbers will be gaudy. Our proprietary modeling is calling for between 7-11 inches tomorrow with another 3-7 inches overnight. I think that may be a bit aggressive. While temperatures will be below freezing all day tomorrow and tomorrow night, the temperatures will still be warmer. I have seen this before where models are super aggressive because there is so much moisture in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, we just don't have the elevation or orographics that our friends to the south do (Utah). Let's go a bit more conservative and call for 5-10 inches tomorrow with another 2-5 inches tomorrow night.
The first AR will move out later in the day Saturday and the next of the ARs will move in very early Sunday morning.
Sunday's storm will be the warmest of the bunch and bring in above-average temperatures around mid-afternoon. Short-range models are showing the snow levels moving above 6k feet by 2-4 PM on Sunday. Sadly this means we will get some rainfall at all elevations on the mountain. I don't think that we get enough rainfall to flush our new snowpack but it will definitely create a crusty layer.
Because of the warmer temperatures snowfall totals on Sunday are very difficult to ascertain. Our internal modeling is calling for 4-8 inches on Sunday with no snow overnight (only rainfall). I think this is pretty accurate. Bogus especially could get hit with more rainfall than expected (thanks Snake River Valley). I have some hope for Tamarack and Brundage that maybe the cold air hangs on a bit longer than forecast. No guarantees.
Overall precipitation totals are very impressive:
At this point, the only question is how long does the colder air hang on?
The best time to do any backcountry riding will be early Sunday. Anytime after noon on Sunday will be iffy on snow levels and temperatures will be warming rapidly. I would also stick with locations further west such as the West Mountains, Mores Creek Summit, and Boise Ridge. The storms are strong but I expect lower snowfall totals in the south-central mountains like the Sawtooths, Soldiers, and Galena Summit.
Temperatures are forecasted to be very warm for most of next week. I don't expect temperatures to get back down to average until next Saturday (12/9).
The last vestiges of the AR will move through the area next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS and European are calling for this final chapter of our AR event to be fairly weak with most of the moisture moving south of us. This is good because any precipitation will fall as rain at most elevations across the state.
Long-range models are split as far as the average temperature anomalies through the remainder of December. The European weeklies keep us colder than average while the GFS dams up the warmer air in the west and keeps the east cold. Let's cross our fingers that the Euro is right.
It does look like we could get another storm cycle through around mid-month. At this point, nothing is set in stone though and this is all speculation.
If it's deep enough to ride; it's deep enough to slide! Keep an eye on your local avalanche centers:
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