Sadly, the pattern looks unfavorable for significant snowfall over the next 1-2 weeks. A storm will bring snow and rain to the Northern Coast Range on Monday, then will weaken significantly with just a quick shot of snow showers across Southern BC Tue-Wed as a cold front moves through. Dry conditions will prevail from Thursday to Sunday with colder temps.
Short Term Forecast
Snowfall from the weekend storm was light and spotty for most areas, but there were a couple of surprises. Revelstoke is reporting 18 cm/7 inches of snow since Saturday night (9 cm since Sunday AM) and Red Mountain is reporting 11 cm/4 inches. Conditions have since cleared out in the wake of this storm.
Forecast for Monday:
A storm will take aim at Northwest BC on Monday with heavy snow expected across the higher terrain. Snow levels will rise to around 900 meters (3k feet) as warmer air arrives, resulting in rain mixing in up to at least mid-mountain at Shames Mountain.
Conditions will be dry across Southern BC with relatively mild temperatures expected in the afternoon. Freezing levels will be near or slightly above the summit at Whistler, and slightly below the summits of most Interior ski resorts.
Forecast for Tuesday to Wednesday:
The Northwest BC storm will weaken as a cold front with lingering moisture/energy tracks from northwest to southeast through Southern BC. The result will be just a quick shot of snow with light snowfall amounts.
The main wave of snow showers will move through Southwest BC and Whistler on Tuesday afternoon/evening, and across the Interior and Powder Highway region early on Wednesday morning.
I'm only expecting a trace-5 cm (trace-2") at Whistler and across the Interior ski resorts. Snow levels will range from 900-1200 meters (3-4k feet) at Whistler and from valley bottoms to 900 meters (3k feet) across the Interior. Colder air will filter in behind the cold front on Wednesday.
A dominant ridge of high pressure will take control of the weather pattern starting on Thursday, resulting in dry conditions through at least next Monday (Nov 27) and possibly beyond. The stubborn high-pressure ridge will act as a barrier to any Pacific storm systems from reaching BC.
Temperatures from Thursday through Monday will be fairly close to seasonal averages overall (maybe a little below average inland, and a little warmer than average toward the coast). Afternoon freezing levels are projected to reach mid-mountain at Whistler each day, while much colder temperatures will prevail across the Interior.
From Tuesday (Nov 28) through early December, the pattern continues to look unfavorable for significant snow as models are in general agreement with high pressure remaining in control. Storms may occasionally "breach" the high-pressure ridge and bring some snow to Whistler and the Coast Range, but storms would quickly weaken heading inland in this scenario.
We'll keep an eye on the pattern, and hopefully, things will start to trend more favorably as we get into December.
Thanks so much for reading! I'm going to decrease my posting frequency a little bit this week with a quiet pattern in place, so check back in for my next post on Wednesday (November 22).