Chase Powder Daily Snow

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By Powderchaser Steve, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago March 17, 2023

The Moisture Plume Restarts Again With Colder Temps And 2-4 Feet For Some.

Summary

The storm that blasted the Rockies over the past few days is dropping south into central New Mexico Friday morning. It has left behind 15-20 inches for New Mexico with cold smoke pow. Next week looks active with some final Atmospheric Rivers for the west and colder temps.

Short Term Forecast

In the short term, chase now to the Northern New Mexico resorts where 11- 15 inches have been reported at Taos, Angle Fire, Red River and 11 inches additional for Wolf Creek on Friday morning. Taos has higher amounts combining some snow that fell Wednesday night. Temps started warm on Thursday and migrated to cold blower by late in the day. Conditions will be epic over the southern San Juan Range especially New Mexico. This storm came in close to my original forecast. Light snow showers will continue Friday morning in these areas with light accumulations. 

Alaska would be a good chase for Friday/Saturday as heavy snow will be falling over Alyeska in the next 24 hours. Winds are gusty by Friday afternoon so expect some closures. Friday night should deliver another round of snowfall for Alyeska pushing into Valdez and Thompson Pass really helping out the Heli operations. I would chase powder for Friday (Dumping) and for Saturday (Snow continuing albeit lighter intensity). 

Below: AK is back in the spotlight with heavy snow from Friday to Saturday and another wave on Sunday. 10-25 inches are certainly possible at higher elevations. 

The extended looks good with another wave of moisture for the Sierra, cooler temps from Sunday night to Wednesday. The Rockies also score 

Extended Forecast

The first wave of moisture enters the Sierra Sunday night and increases by Monday morning. This will favor all ranges of the Sierra with 8-12 inches of snow by 11AM Monday. Snow levels will be respectable (Tahoe Basin) with medium density. Another wave provides a long duration fetch of additional snow late Monday through Tuesday night which might favor the southern Sierra (Mammoth) for the highest totals. 

Snow will push north and east early next week providing moderate snowfall for the Cascades (Southern WA or Oregon is favored) and even extend north into the Panhandle of Idaho (Moderate totals with decent skiing). Sun Valley is a wildcard early or mid next week. 

Stronger moisture edges east from the Sierra over the Wasatch Range with model differences on timing. This will begin over Utah anywhere from Monday morning to late afternoon (GFS and Euro timing differences). Tuesday morning  will likely find double digits in some spots of the Wasatch. Winds start out from the south Monday evening which could spell decent totals for Sundance, or even Deer Valley. NW winds later Monday night into Tuesday morning should favor the Cottonwoods, especially LCC.  I would expect 8-14 inches for the Cottonwoods by Tuesday morning and 7-9 inches for the Park City locations extending north into the Ogden area mountains (3-9).. Winds shift back to the S or SW on Tuesday so it might decrease intensities in LCC (Could be bit better in BCC). There appears to be a break on Tuesday with another moderate surge of moisture into Wednesday morning with a cooling trend. Temps Monday are warm migrating to a cooler Tuesday morning and the sweet spot for blower on Tuesday PM to Wednesday. Light to moderate snow will likely continue into Thursday (Snow showers with higher snow to liquid ratios). 

The Tetons are on the northern end of the highest moisture grabbing 5-10 inches at some point Monday night into Tuesday (Moderate event). 

Colorado may end up with the highest moisture with this storm as the low tracks south over the 4 corners, pounding the San Juan Range from Tuesday to Thursday. Models show the highest odds of double digits from Steamboat to Aspen (50% confidence), and into the Gunnison Basin (75% confidence). Silverton, Wolf Creek, and even Telluride (Wildcard) should all do very well with this storm. New Mexico will score also! I have very high confidence of 20-30 inches for some of these areas through Thursday (San Juan Range of Colorado). Spoiler Alert: Temps are warm in Colorado next week with dense snow likely until Wednesday or Thursday.  This might come in really heavy, and end with better density. The cold front seems to hover to the west in Utah a bit longer before edging into Colorado midweek. Winds shift from the SW to the NW Thursday morning increasing the odds of some decent snowfall for the I-70 corridor. This might linger into Thursday night. 

Chases- Alaska (Chase now) Sierra (Monday-Wednesday) isolated areas of Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wasatch Range (Monday-Wednesday)Tetons (Wildcard), central and Southern Colorado (Tuesday to Thursday) and finally New Mexico (Midweek). 

Below: Total snowfall through Thursday. There is some model differences here. 

American GFS- Decent totals for much of the west through Thursday morning. 

Below: European shows a bit further south on the highest totals (Same time period) but also higher amounts for the Tetons than the American GFS above. Lower amounts for Idaho. 

Beyond mid next week, there appears to be an active period for the Pacific Northwest with colder temps. 

Follow my Instagram feed @powderchasersteve for the latest in travel, snow and photography. 

Announcements

Speaking of snow in Alaska, Alaska Backcountry Guides (Heli) in Valdez (Great outfit) is offering a book 3 get 1 seat for free special from March 19th to the 25th (Mention Powderchaser Steve for the discount). Snow in the forecast will provide excellent conditions.  1 free seat is a great deal. 

Enjoy the powder everyone! 

Powderchaser Steve 

About Our Forecaster

Powderchaser Steve

Forecaster

Powderchaser Steve has over 45 years of experience chasing storms based on his weather and local knowledge of resorts on both the East and West Coasts. His snow intel will likely land him at the deepest resort and almost never missing "First Chair" in the process. Follow "The Chase" on OpenSnow to find out where the deepest snow may be falling.

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