Chase Powder Daily Snow

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By Powderchaser Steve, Forecaster Posted 1 month ago February 21, 2024

Utah/Colorado Update 5AM

Summary

My previous update Tuesday evening is holding up with less snow falling in the Cottonwoods, with higher totals likely for Brian Head in the south or Beaver Mountain up north. Snow showers will continue in many mountain locations of Utah with lots of uncertainty due to the unorganized nature of convective bands.

Update

It is 5 AM and I am not surprised that LCC and BCC are only reporting 4-5 inches. LCC remains closed on Wednesday morning but should reopen by 0830. The heaviest moisture bands are favoring the northern Cashe Valley near Logan. Beaver Mountain might provide a sneaky good first chair this morning. Deer Valley has 6-8 since the lifts closed! There are still snow showers falling in most of northern Utah that might see a break early AM only to reinvigorate by mid or late AM. The models clearly showed a decrease in snow totals for Tuesday night. 

Cooler air will move into Utah by mid-morning and transition creamy snow to mid or mid to heavy-density snow. Snow showers are going to be hard to predict today (Models in full disagreement). Before the cool front, I think northern Utah (Ogden and Logan area mountains) is favored. Post cooling, it's possible the Cottonwoods play catch up.  For amounts, it's likely 3-7 inches fall on Wednesday while the lifts are spinning (Northern areas favored initially), and another 2-4 inches under NW flow favor the Cottonwoods or the Canyons side of PCMR for Thursday morning (Higher quality snow). 

Where to chase?  No clear answer. Warm temps, moderate snow. Cooling is occurring faster in the Cashe Valley so perhaps Beaver Mountain is the right call (Most snow fell with warmer temps). Keep an eye on Snowbasin and even the Cottonwoods with hard-to-forecast unstable showers that could lay down several inches in just a few hours this morning. Thursday morning gamble for some NW flow and moderate snow for the Cottonwoods (Gamble). 

In Colorado, the models continue to favor the Steamboat region for Wednesday. I am lowering the amounts slightly to (4-8). Some light snow will fall to the south over WP and to the I-70 corridor. 

Next week continues to look very active for the Rockies, PNW, and BC with much colder temps. Stay tuned

Powderchaser Steve 

TUESDAY PM UPDATE: 

The Sierra is still onboard for 5-9 inches Tuesday night with colder temps and decent quality (A good chase) The emphasis will likely favor areas from central Tahoe and south (Kirkwood) with a bit less towards I-80. Mammoth is a wildcard but will see new snow on Wednesday morning. Finally some good temps for powder at the bases. 

Below: Additional snowfall picking up in the Sierra Tuesday night favoring areas in South Lake, Kirkwood, and perhaps Mammoth. Slightly less will be likely to the northern end of the lake (Northstar, Palisades, SugarBowl). Expect 5-10 inches as a good range for your wake-up call. 

 

Today in Utah saw some impressive snow totals by first chair with Powder Mountain in the 10-13 inch range and Snowbasin not far behind. Snow quality was dense. In the Cottonwoods, 5-9 inches were reported with hero snow (Graupel mixed with density). 

The models keep a high uncertainty for Wednesday morning for Utah. 

* High confidence in a weak cold front impacting Utah beginning around 4 AM Wednesday (Slowly cooling). Quality might improve on Wednesday with additional snow showers continuing during the day. 

* Models diverge with good confidence on central and southern Utah (Eagle Point, Brian Head) and metro areas near Manti for 8-12 inches. less confidence on the Cottonwoods Tuesday night with an increasing trend of snowfall on Wednesday with a wind shift to the NW (Split overnight and day snow). 

* The wildcard is northern Utah where some models show strong favoritism Tuesday night. Keep your eye on Beaver Mountain near Logan, Pow Mow, and Snowbasin. Cherry Creek also has good totals.  Some models push higher totals in these areas versus the Cottonwoods. Others show the Cottonwoods being favored (I am leaning a bit north at this point Tuesday evening). Keep your options open (Don't flood LCC and BCC). As I predicted on my last forecast LCC closes tonight at 12:30 AM.  

Get up early and check webcams. I might post from the road on Wednesday morning. Quality will still be dense, but gradual cooling will improve conditions during the day. 

Finally in Colorado, the only chase spot I see grabbing 5-10 is the Steamboat region on Wednesday (Day storm) that lingers into the evening. 

Late this weekend looks promising for cold air and plenty of snow for the PNW, Canada, and the Rockies by Monday/Tuesday. More on that later. 

See you in the first chair.  I made 2nd chair today at PCMR. 

Powderchaser Steve 

About Our Forecaster

Powderchaser Steve

Forecaster

Powderchaser Steve has over 45 years of experience chasing storms based on his weather and local knowledge of resorts on both the East and West Coasts. His snow intel will likely land him at the deepest resort and almost never missing "First Chair" in the process. Follow "The Chase" on OpenSnow to find out where the deepest snow may be falling.

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