On Tuesday, while most of the state was dry, lingering moisture over the northern mountains, plus the jet stream overhead, helped to crank out snow showers throughout the day. Below are the snow totals from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, with the majority of this snow falling during the day on Tuesday.

Loveland - 7”
Arapahoe Basin - 4”
Eldora - 4”
Keystone - 3”
Winter Park - 3”
Breckenridge - 2”
Beaver Creek - 1” (then melted/settled to 0”)
Copper - 1”
Vail - 1” (then melted/settled to 0”)

It looks like the deepest accumulations were right along the divide at the higher-elevation mountains. I was not surprised to see a couple inches throughout the day, but 4-7 inches at Eldora, Arapahoe Basin, and Loveland did surprise me. Over the past few days, all models showed some promise for northern-mountain snow showers on Tuesday but then backed down until Monday night when models again showed more promise. Tricky forecast, and some surprising results. While I want to get the forecast details right all of the time, I’ll never complain about more snow!

Moving on, most of Wednesday and Thursday should be dry. Most of this time will be partly to mostly cloudy as moisture moves into Colorado in advance of the next storm. I can’t rule out additional snow showers with a bit of accumulation, but temperatures will be warming and this is not as conducive to accumulating snow.

The next storm will bring precipitation starting on Thursday late afternoon or early evening and the precipitation will continue through Friday night at midnight. Winds will be strong, temperatures will be warm, and moisture will be plentiful,

* Winds. Expect gusty conditions on the ridges, and this will create thicker, denser snow on Thursday night and Friday.

* Temperatures. They will start warm enough on Thursday evening that the snow level could be around 9,000 feet. Then temperatures will cool slightly during the day on Friday, and cool more dramatically on Friday night. Thankfully, the latest forecast shows slightly cooler readings during the day on Friday compared to previous forecasts.

Most mountains will see snow from mid-mountain and above, though some lower-elevation mountains could see rain on the lower half of the mountain, below about 9,000 feet. The most likely time to see lower-elevation rain will be on Thursday night and Friday morning before the cooler air moves in, and also during times of lighter precipitation when snow levels will rise.

* Moisture will be plentiful. This storm is an atmospheric river, a name given to a system that brings in a LOT of moisture, usually from the sub-tropical Pacific Ocean. Since moisture is the fuel for snow, we MIGHT see a lot of snow at the highest elevations. The limiting factor is the warmer temperatures.

* Deepest snow. My best estimate is that the highest mountains could out-perform the general forecast of 4-8 inches. The higher-elevation mountains include Telluride, Silverton, and Wolf Creek in the southern mountains, Crested Butte and Monarch in the central mountains, Summit County (Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Loveland), and the northern divide in the northern mountains (Winter Park, Eldora, and north).

* Wind direction. Winds will be from the southwest initially, then swing around to blow from the west-southwest and west later on Friday and Friday night. Southwest winds favor Wolf Creek and Silverton, west-southwest winds favor Telluride, Silverton, Crested Butte, and Monarch, and sometimes Summit County when there is a LOT of moisture. And west winds favor the Aspen area. As the winds change, different mountains will be favored.

* Wrap-it-up: the best time to ride. Friday midday/afternoon and Saturday morning. We will see slightly cooler temperatures on Friday afternoon, then another few degrees of cooling will occur on Friday evening with the last part of the storm. Look for storm skiing (snowing, windy) on Friday with fresh snow and clearer skies on Saturday morning.

Following this storm, I think most of Saturday and Sunday will be dry.

Starting on Sunday night, the next storm will meander toward Colorado, but it will slow down, dive to the south, and hang out near or to the south of Colorado through most of next week. You can see the storm’s slow movement in the forecast below, from Sunday night through Saturday, March 31st (track the area of blue). If you do not see the animation, click here: http://opsw.co/2GOK12X

When storms cut-off from the main west-to-east flow of weather and sit to our south, I have seen them move further south and slower than most models think. Also, with a track to our south, the best chance for the deepest snow in Colorado is usually in the mountains near and east of the divide (due to a wind from the east) as well as potentially the southern mountains due to the proximity to the storm.

The take-home point for next week is that we might see snow during multiple days, as long as the storm doesn’t go too far south, and the best snow could be in the eastern and southern mountains.

After that, it looks like the first few days of April could be dry (though the American GFS model pushes another storm toward Colorado from the north).

Then, it appears we’ll see another stormy period starting around April 5th-ish, and maybe continuing through the second week of April.

Remember, it’s not over until it’s over, and here in Colorado, we can get powder through early May. In fact, some of my better powder days were in April and early May!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains