Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago October 6, 2018

Precipitation starts on Saturday afternoon, continues on-and-off for one week

Summary

Saturday will begin with drier weather, then a slow-moving storm will start the rain and snow on Saturday afternoon and we’ll see a chance for precipitation each day through at least Sunday, October 14. Total snowfall near and above 10,000 feet could be 12+ inches and there will be times that snowflakes will fall down to the elevation of mountain towns.

Short Term Forecast

Before getting to the stormy forecast, let’s look at a few pictures.

Bailey, in the foothills just west of Denver. Still some fall color.

Amazing images from Crested Butte, with lingering fall color and snow on the peaks!

Back to the weather…

On Friday, most mountains experienced multiple rounds of showers and the ski area cams showed a coating to 2 inches of snow near and above 10,000 feet.

Now on Saturday morning, we have mostly dry weather and temperatures are chilly in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Saturday morning’s water vapor satellite animation shows our upcoming storm, swirling over Oregon and Idaho, as it slowly makes its way south and east toward Colorado.

From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, expect moderate to intense showers, and mountains near and above 10,000 feet could see 2-6 inches.

On Sunday, we might see a lull for a bit, but showers will return at some point in the day.

Expect additional showers on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, maybe a lull on Wednesday or Thursday, then more showers and stormy weather Friday, Saturday, and maybe Sunday.

Does that forecast feel vague to you? Absolutely, and it should be vague because, despite the confidence we have in the stormy and cool weather for the next week, the details of the snow and rain are still uncertain, and they might remain that way through the storm.

The reason for the uncertainty is that our stormy pattern will move slowly, with bits of energy circulating around the Rocky Mountains. It’s impossible to know exactly when each bit of energy will hit Colorado, and exactly where it will hit, hence the overall uncertainty in the precipitation forecast.

If we do try to look at the timing of the snow, we can see that at Copper Mountain, in the northern mountains, the best chance for snow (top panel) will be Saturday night through Tuesday, then maybe again later in the week.

And in the southern mountains, at Wolf Creek, the best chance for snow will be Saturday night through Monday, and then again around Friday into Saturday.

The American GFS model’s total snow forecast shows 12+ inches for most mountains between now and Friday.

However, since the snow will come in waves, and there could be somewhat warmer temperatures and a peak of sunshine between the waves, some of the snow will melt.

Compare the total snow accumulation forecast above with the snow depth forecast below and you’ll see that the forecasted snow depth next Friday is noticeably lower than the amount of snow that is predicted to fall.

No matter, there should be enough snow over the coming week so that some of you will make the first high-elevation turns of the season (looking at you Silverton Mountain for the typical early-fall skiing pictures!) and most mountain towns will see flakes at some point.

Extended Forecast

Most models agree that the stormy and cool weather will begin to break starting sometime around Sunday, October 14th, and that the second half of October will NOT be as cool and stormy as the first half.

That being said, most models also agree that there will be some storms during the second half of October, but that these storms will likely be more transitory, lasting a day or two, rather than a week-long event like we are seeing now.

Keep in mind that there is little to no correlation between October snowfall and total snowfall for the season. And a lot of snow that falls in October usually melts anyway. So while it’s nice to see the flakes, and we’ll always take the precipitation in our dry State of Colorado, I am only hoping that reasonably cool temperatures hang on through the month so snowmaking crews can start to lay down a base for the season ahead.

Thanks for reading … next update on Sunday, October 7.

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

 

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* October 18 in Colorado Springs at Ute & Yeti starting at 630pm. Beer & food available for purchase. Free to attend! RSVP here.

* October 25 in Golden at Powder7 ski shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! RSVP page coming soon.

* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. Free to attend! There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Details here.

* Early November in Summit County

* November 28 in Vail

* December 5 in Denver

 

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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