Storm Recap

On Tuesday morning, the chances for a storm on Friday were low.

On Wednesday morning, the chances for a storm on Friday increased but were still in the 50/50 range.

Then on Thursday morning, all models came into agreement that we would see a storm on Friday.

I wouldn’t call this a “surprise” storm because we did have 12-24 hours of notice, but I would call it a “bonus” storm because it was not one that we were looking forward to for days.

Snow fell from Thursday night through Friday night, and the totals are below. The majority of this snow fell before Friday night, so while Saturday morning will offer soft conditions and maybe some stashes of powder, much of the new snow was skied on Friday.

Breckenridge: 12”
Echo: 10”+
Cooper: 10”
Snowmass: 10”
Eldora: 9”
Keystone: 8”
Monarch: 7”
Aspen Highlands: 6”
Aspen Mountain: 6”
Beaver Creek: 6”
Copper: 6”
Loveland: 6”
Vail: 5”
Powderhorn: 4”
Winter Park: 4”
Wolf Creek: 4”

Mountains to the east certainly did well, though the higher totals at Cooper, Snowmass, and Aspen Highlands/Mountain show that enough energy rotated back west to bring some bands of more intense snow. We’ll take it!

This weekend will be showery

Energy from Friday’s storm will linger over southern Colorado, and we’ll also see another piece of weak energy move toward Colorado from the southwest.

There is a large ridge of high pressure (calmer weather) to our north, which is acting as a block in the atmosphere’s west-to-east flow, and this is helping to allow the storm energy to linger over Colorado.

Below is the weather pattern forecast for Saturday. The blue areas show some storminess. Notice the little area over southwestern Colorado, and also the blue/green area over southern California which will head toward southwest Colorado.

And on Sunday, below, that energy over southern California moves toward southwestern Colorado.

What this means is that Saturday and Sunday will be showery, with the best chance for some accumulations in the central and especially the southern mountains. Total accumulations should be near or under 6 inches over two days in the southern mountains. This is enough snow to soften the slopes, though because it will be spread out over two days, I am not sure that there will be a single time to find deeper powder. If there is a time, it could be on Sunday around Purgatory and Wolf Creek.

Next week becomes active, powder on Friday

We are still 6-7 days away from the storm, so I hesitate to get overly excited, but most models are in agreement that we’ll see a strong system move through on Friday, so, for now, let’s get somewhat excited for Friday powder and remember that the details of the storm will likely change at least a little bit.

On Tuesday night, the first pieces of weak energy will move into western Colorado, which could bring clouds and a few showers.

The scenario is the same on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Just weak energy, some clouds, some showers.

On Thursday night, the main storm will approach and we should see an uptick in the snow.

Then the storm will move over Colorado sometime on Friday, and this is likely when we’ll see the most snow.

On Friday night, the storm will strengthen to the east of Colorado, and this could produce a moist northwest flow which could bring additional snow to the northern mountains and lead to a powder morning on Saturday.

For now, I’d pencil in Friday as a powder day, with Saturday morning having good odds for soft/deep snow in the northern mountains as well. Total snowfall across the state may be in the 6-12 inch range (just an early estimate).

The outlook is murky after Saturday.

Some models show another storm hitting around Monday, January 21st.

And maybe there could be another system during the middle of the week, like Wednesday, January 23rd.

We’ll leave it at “a few more chances for snow” after the likely powder on Friday/Saturday, January 18-19, and we’ll keep an eye on these potential systems.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Sunday, January 13. I will be traveling through early next week and my posts will be a be published a bit later than usual. Thanks for understanding!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains