Saturday’s Snow

Lingering energy from Friday’s storm hung around on Saturday and the central and southern mountains saw snow showers, especially during the midday, afternoon, and early evening.

The snow reports below are from Saturday morning through Sunday morning, and most of this snow fell during the day on Saturday or early on Saturday evening.

Telluride: 6”
Wolf Creek: 5”
Purgatory: 4”
Silverton: 4”
Cooper: 3”
Crested Butte: 3”
Many: 1-2”

Thanks to the snow on Saturday, expect to find soft or low-end powder conditions on Sunday morning.

Sunday Southern Snow

A southwestern storm will hit Arizona and New Mexico on Sunday and will just graze Colorado’s southern mountains.

Sunday morning’s radar animation shows this system:

Both of the high-resolution short-term models produce 2-6 inches for Purgatory and Wolf Creek during the day and early evening on Sunday, so maybe we’ll see softer snow in the afternoon or even on Monday morning if this snow takes a little longer to arrive.

The HRRR 3km model:

The NAM-WRF 3km model:

Next snowfall Wednesday to Saturday

Monday and Tuesday will be dry.

Then we’ll see clouds increase on Tuesday night and there will be showers around on Tuesday and Wednesday. These showers could produce at least a few inches of snow, though I have low confidence in the timing of any of this snowfall, and also, the showers on Tuesday and Wednesday will just be a ramp up to the main event on Friday.

All models are in agreement that snow should become intense either late Thursday night or early Friday and should continue through the day on Friday.

Initially, the deepest amounts will be in the southern mountains and the mountains that are further west in the central and northern areas, because the wind will start from the southwest and then swing around to the west.

Then by Friday afternoon or Friday night, the wind direction should switch to blow from the northwest and this should favor the northern mountains for additional snow on Friday night into Saturday.

The best powder for all mountains should be during the day on Friday as snow accumulations increase during the day. It’ll be a storm-skiing day! Then if northwest flow kicks in on Friday night, the northern mountains might have excellent powder on Saturday morning with fluffier snow falling on top of the somewhat denser snow from Friday.

The University of Utah multi-model ensemble for the central mountains, at McClure Pass, shows the ramp-up period on Wednesday and Thursday and then the significant storm on Friday. The model average is about 12 inches which looks reasonable. I think most mountains will be in the 6-12 inch range with some higher amounts.

Following the snow on Friday and Friday night, we might see showers linger for some mountains on Saturday.

I am still somewhat uncertain about what happens after Friday’s system. There could be another weaker storm around Monday, January 21st, or energy from the northwest might bring us snow a bit later on the 22nd or 23rd. All models show at least some snow between the 21st to the 23rd, but differ on the details, so we’ll leave the outlook vague for now and hope to fine tune things in a few days.

The last week or so of January should feature a large trough of colder air over the eastern 2/3rds of the United States and Canada. Colorado and the Rocky Mountains will be on the western edge of this colder air, and this can actually wind up being an ok pattern for snow if storms can ride down the Rockies from the northwest. If the storms take a track that’s just a bit further east, we could stay dry. It’s much too soon to know the details, though.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Monday, January 14. I will be traveling through Tuesday and my posts will be published a bit later than usual. Thanks for understanding!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains