More Powder Pictures

The powder has been so good over the past few weeks that we should continue to celebrate the deepness!

I visited Sunlight this past Saturday and enjoyed a wonderful morning of fresh tracks. There are a handful of smaller mountains around Colorado, like Sunlight, that offer wonderful skiing and riding. If you always head to the larger mountains, change it up one day and explore other areas!

Sunlight’s slopes waiting to be skied.

A line through the trees at Sunlight.

Speaking of local ski hills, below is a powder picture from Cooper (not Copper, though they also received plenty of snow from this most recent storm).

And more recently (yesterday, Monday, March 11), it was a powder day in Telluride’s Revelation Bowl!

Deep Powder

Below is Jared Fehr on March 7th enjoyed the powder, without skis, from the Outward Bound Basecamp in Leadville.

We’re all here because we know that it’s super fun to play in deep powder. But there is a sobering side to all of this snow as well. Over the weekend, roof avalanches buried three people (details here and here) near Crested Butte and sadly one of these people did not survive – my condolences to the family and friends of this person.

Storm Part 1: Monday & Tuesday

We’ve seen snow from Sunday night through Monday night, and now on Tuesday morning, the snow is continuing.

While most mountains have seen 1-3 inches thanks to random showers moving southwest-to-northeast across the state, as we expected, the deepest accumulations have been in the southern mountains.

The 24-hour snow reports on Tuesday morning:
Wolf Creek: 22”
Purgatory: 13”
Silverton: 12”
Telluride: 7”

The radar image below shows that snow is continuing over Colorado’s southern mountains on Tuesday morning thanks to a storm over the southwest pushing lots of moisture toward the northeast.

Also in the radar image above, notice the snow and rain over the northwest (upper-left-corner). This storm over the northwest will combine with the storm over the southwest to create the monster storm over Colorado’s eastern plains on Wednesday afternoon.

The snow forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night is more of the same from Monday. The deepest snow will be in the south with 6-20 inches while other mountains see scattered showers and a few inches of accumulation. This map the similar ones below are from the CAIC 2km WRF model.

Also, temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be warm, so the snow level will stay around 9,000 feet (+/- 500 feet) and could even rise to closer to 10,000 feet by Tuesday afternoon. This is a high snow level, so expect rain at many lower and mid elevations and thicker, dense snow at the upper elevations.

Storm Part 2: Tuesday Night – Thursday

As a weather nerd, this part of the storm is going to be incredible to watch. On Wednesday midday and afternoon, the storm will rapidly strengthen over eastern Colorado and could be one of the strongest storms (as measured by sea level pressure) to exist over Colorado or Kansas.

With such a strong storm, and with one that will form and strengthen so rapidly, we have to expect that the weather forecast models are going to get some things wrong, or in other words, below is my best shot at the forecast, but there will be surprises.

Tuesday night:

The night might start on the slow side, but the snow will get cranking later in the night and into early Wednesday morning as temperatures begin to cool.

Wednesday:

This is when the storm will rapidly strengthen over Colorado’s eastern plains. Expect intense snow at times during the day for many mountains, especially closer to the northeast divide (red areas in the map below).

Wednesday afternoon winds:

The most certain aspect of this storm will be the strong wind that it creates over Colorado’s eastern plains. All models show the strongest gusts reaching 80-90mph by the afternoon. Wow! Many roads over Colorado’s eastern plains will likely be closed due to snow, strong wind, and near zero visibility. While I usually celebrate snow and the excitement of weather, this strong wind and snow will be a dangerous situation for people or animals outside during the storm, so stay safe eastern Colorado!

Wednesday night:

The storm will depart though moisture will linger so we should continue to see snow showers through the night and into Thursday morning.

Storm total:

Snowfall from Tuesday through Thursday will be impressive. Most mountains should see at least 10 inches and we could get 30+ inches in some spots, mostly in the south thanks to the ‘extra’ snow on Tuesday during the warm, southern part of the storm.

A few more notes:

* Uncertainty. The storm on Wednesday will be strengthening rapidly. This can create some high-side surprises with snow totals AND there will be some surprises in general as weather models can struggle a bit with these dynamic systems.

* Timing. The best powder will likely be on Wednesday as it gets deeper through the day (the morning snow reports will be low, except in the south, as most of the snow will fall during the day). There could be powder on Thursday morning as well, though I am concerned about the moisture waning on Wednesday night.

* Location. The southern mountains will see the deepest snow this week because of Monday and Tuesday’s accumulations in addition to the snow on Wednesday. For the deepest snow from the Wednesday storm, I like Silverton, Telluride, Powderhorn (north wind), and areas close to the northern divide (Cameron Pass, Berthoud Pass, Winter Park).

Have fun out there, and be safe!

The newest models are in relative agreement about the outlook for the next 15 days.

* Dry from Friday, March 15 – Wednesday, March 20.

* Some snow with a weaker storm from Thursday, March 21 – Friday, March 22.

* A good chance for multiple storms starting around Saturday, March 23 and continuing through the end of March.

Even if the snow stopped now, it would have been a wonderful winter. But all signs point to more snow through the end of this month, and the 45-day 'fantasy land' European model shows active weather through April as well, so it looks like this already memorable winter could keep going and going and going!

Thanks for reading.

My next update will be on Wednesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

OpenSnow + Surfline

We've partnered with our friends at Surfline to bring you 3 free months of Surfline Premium when you upgrade to OpenSnow All-Access! Current All-Access subscribers can visit your Settings page to find the unique Surfline Premium code under 'All-Access Promo Codes'. Click here for more details. 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains