The next storm is still a few days away so I'll take a little time upfront to talk about our current snow depth as well as recent temperatures and precipitation.

Snow Depth

The current snow depth across Colorado, compared to average, is slipping to below-average numbers due to the warm and dry weather this week. The central and northern mountains around 80-90% of average while the southern mountains are still 120-130% of average.

If you're searching for where there is currently snow cover, and how deep the snow is, our snow depth map is an amazing resource. It covers all of the United States and southern Canada, which of course includes a detailed view of Colorado. All-Access subscribers can view this map on our website and our mobile apps by selecting "Map" and then the "Snow Depth" layer. 

The snow depth layer is created by NOAA and is an estimate based on predicted snowfall and temperatures. Even though it is an estimate, I find the data remarkably accurate much of the time.

For example, we can zoom the map into Berthoud Pass in the northern mountains and see that the approximate snow depth is 12 inches. 

To confirm this 12-inch depth, we can look at the Berthoud Summit SNOTEL station. A SNOTEL station is a high-elevation weather station set up by the federal government to collect snow data primarily to approximate springtime water runoff.

Data from the Berthoud Summit SNOTEL site shows a snow depth of 13 inches which is in the ballpark of the 12 inches shown on the snow depth map.

Of course, there will be pockets of deeper snow and shallower snow depending on slope aspect, slope angle, the presence of trees and shrubs, etc. No matter, it's great to see that the snow depth map does a reasonable job of approximating actual snow conditions on the ground (I spot-checked a few other areas around Colorado and found similarly accurate results).

Recent Climate

The Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University shared the following chart a few days ago. It was the first time I saw this type of visual to communicate how recent temperature and precipitation compared to average. I thought it was an effective way to display a lot of data in an easy-to-understand chart. 

The vertical axis is temperature, the horizontal axis is precipitation, and the data is for the three-months of August, September, and October. You can see that 2020 (the star in the upper-left) is solidly in the "warm+dry" quadrant confirming what we all sensed – it was a warm and dry autumn! The other dots show years back to the early 1900s.

Forecast Wednesday & Thursday

We will see dry weather on both days. The only hiccup is that the latest models show a period of gusty winds on Wednesday midday. Unfortunately, temperatures should stay warm which may mean no ability to make snow even at night.

Storm Friday & Saturday

We should see showers by late Friday or Friday night and these showers will continue through Saturday.

This storm has always been a tricky one to forecast with equal chances for just light snow if all factors do not come together or a lot of snow if all factors align perfectly.

Unfortunately, the model trend is not our friend. All of the latest forecasts do NOT show that all factors will come together and thus my confidence in a lot of snow is pretty low.

On the upside, the continued uncertainty in the forecast means that models could flip back to previous forecasts with more snow, or maybe the models just have no clue and the atmosphere will surprise us in a good way. Admittedly this is a lower-probability scenario, but it's still a possibility.

The most likely outcome is that we'll see showers on Friday night, then just a few mountains will see a period of more intense snow on Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Right now it appears that the best chance for a streak of deeper totals (6+ inches) will be over the southern mountains with lighter amounts (just a few inches) for other mountains.

The forecast map above will change many more times before the storm arrives. Keep a potential powder day on Saturday in your thoughts but don't get overly excited about it. The other reason to temper excitement is that this storm will be warm which would result in thicker snow. That's good for base building but maybe not for snow quality.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, I continue to see the potential for storms around Tuesday (Nov 24) and Thursday (Nov 26).

We could use one or two significant systems to boost our snowpack and allow mountains to open more terrain, though I have my doubts that this weekend's storm or the potential storms next week will achieve "significant" status.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS - We just released a new All-Access subscription. It's a Group Subscription that's only $39.99/year for 4 people. It works just like a family plan on Netflix or Spotify, for example. As an incentive to try it out, our friends at Powder7 Ski Shop are giving away a pair of Hestra Fall Line Gloves.

Become an All-Access Group subscriber by November 30th and you'll be automatically entered to win. It's that simple!

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NEW: Avalanche Forecasts

Many folks have requested this over the past year and we're excited to now show avalanche forecasts for regions across North America. 

You can use our map view to see a quick overview of the avalanche forecast conditions and you can also go back in time for the last 7 days to see how the avalanche conditions have changed by using the slider at the bottom of the map.

Also, we integrated the avalanche forecast into each mountain location page under a new tab called "Avalanche Forecast". 

The avalanche forecasts are freely available and are the foundation of any backcountry experience. Please check these forecasts each time you head out of controlled terrain! 

You can view the avalanche forecasts right now on our website and they will be live on our iPhone and Android apps very soon.

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains