Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 2 years ago October 24, 2021

Somewhat Stormy

Summary

On Saturday night, we saw 1-4 inches of snow with the highest amounts near Crested Butte and Steamboat. The snow should end by Sunday mid-morning to midday, then we'll stay dry through late Monday night. The next storm will arrive around Tuesday at sunrise and we'll see times of intense snow on Tuesday with additional snow showers continuing on Tuesday night, Wednesday, and maybe into Thursday.

Short Term Forecast

On Saturday night, snow showers spread over most mountains and we saw fits and starts of snow all night and into Sunday morning. Snow stake cams and SNOTEL stations show that most areas received just a coating to an inch of snow, including A-Basin and Keystone where there could be just a bit of soft snow on top of the groomed run.

I did find a few spots with more snow. Steamboat's summit snow stake cam shows about 2 inches and the Tower SNOTEL station at Buffalo Pass shows 3-4 inches. Also, Crested Butte's snow stake cam shows 3 inches. At least around Crested Butte, the wind direction from the west-southwest likely contributed to the slightly higher accumulations. A wind from the west-southwest is by far the best wind direction for Crested Butte to get snow, and the wind direction is not that favorable for many other spots.

Lull Sunday through Monday

We'll be in between storms and will stay dry from Sunday midday through Monday late at night.

Storm Tuesday and Wednesday

This system is looking incrementally more impressive as it gets closer, and that's a good thing. If it's going to snow, we might as well have a shot at double-digit accumulations, right?!

Snow should begin within a few hours of sunrise on Tuesday, then all mountains should see periods of intense snow during the day on Tuesday and perhaps into Tuesday night. From later Tuesday night through Thursday midday, northwest flow should keep clouds over the northern and some central mountains, and snow showers should continue during this time with at least a few inches of additional accumulation.

I'll stick with my forecast from yesterday which said that total snowfall should average in the 4-8 inch range and some areas could see 8-12 inches. The areas that have the highest chance for the most snow should be the northern San Juans (Red Mountain Pass area), the western part of the central mountains (Irwin, Marble, maybe Snowmass and Aspen), and the far northern mountains around and just north of Steamboat and near Cameron Pass. These areas should benefit from both the first part of the storm which will bring a line of intense showers that will slowly weaken as it moves east, and the second part of the storm which will bring ongoing snow showers in northwest flow.

The multi-model snow forecast for Red Mountain Pass hasn't changed much with a model average of just over a foot of snow from early Tuesday through later Wednesday.

If some of the favored areas do see a foot (or more) of snow, there could be a chance for more turns on grassy slopes. Also, Tuesday midday and afternoon, as well as Wednesday, should offer softer and dare I say a few powder turns at A-Basin and Keystone (the only resorts spinning a lift each day…Wolf Creek is still on a weekend-only schedule).

Extended Forecast

After the midweek storm ends, most of the state will be dry on Thursday and Friday, though some clouds and showers could stick around on Thursday in the far northern mountains north of I-70.

Our next chance for a storm will be during Halloween weekend. The American GFS model shows a shot of very cold air (and a little snow) clipping the northern and eastern mountains. Other models show the same general scenario but keep the very cold air and snowflakes well to our north. The 'right' answer likely is somewhere in the middle of these forecasts, and I'll of course keep you updated if the forecast trends toward a stormier or less stormy scenario.

As we transition into November, the first few days of the month should be on the drier and warmer side.

Then as we move toward the first weekend of November (6th to 7th), the longer-range models are hinting that things will get more active around the Rockies. Let's hope that's the case!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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