Our snowpack is well below average. We can catch up, but we need good results from both of the storms coming up next week.

Saturday

It was a gorgeous day for family skiing! High temperatures were in the 30s and 40s with light winds. We linked up with two other families at Copper and enjoyed cruising around during the middle of the day. While most of us reading the Colorado Daily Snow are yearning for a lot more terrain and deep powder, to 4-6-year-olds, sunny skies and a few groomed runs are pretty much perfect.

Sunday

A storm passing to our north will cool temperatures and highs should be in the upper 20s for the central and northern mountains. Winds will be gusty close to the divide, and the far, far northeastern mountains could see a few flakes.

Storm #1: Monday afternoon – Tuesday

This system will be the weaker of the two storms next week.

Snow will start in the northern mountains on Monday between noon and sunset, then the snow will spread south across the rest of the state by Monday evening. The steadiest snow will end on Tuesday morning with snow showers lingering during the day on Tuesday.

Snow amounts should average 2-6 inches across the state. Storm energy will be ok, moisture will be plentiful for a few hours on Monday night, and the wind direction will mostly be from the west. All of these factors point to low-end to moderate snow totals.

Most models show the highest snowfall potential around Steamboat, and a wind direction from the west does favor Steamboat, as well as other areas like Summit County, the Aspen area, and the northern and western part of the Southern Mountains (Telluride, Silverton).

I am cautiously optimistic (due to decent moisture) that a few spots will see more than 6 inches, but most mountains will likely see around or fewer than 6 inches. It won't be a bad storm, but it also won't be the storm we need to turn our early season around.

The softest turns will be on Tuesday morning.

From later Tuesday through Wednesday, most mountains should see dry weather most of the time.

Storm #2: Thursday – Saturday morning

I'm not going to mince words: We need this storm to come through for us. 

And, the ingredients are there for a really, really good storm.

There will be plentiful moisture for 12-24 hours from Thursday into Friday.

Storm energy should be strong and move directly over Colorado.

The jet stream should be positioned directly over Colorado.

A cold front could slowly move across Colorado, which would be the focus for intense snow.

The latest multi-model forecast shows lots of blues and oranges, or roughly 1-2 inches of precipitation on Thursday into Friday. This would easily equate to 10-20+ inches of snow for many mountains.

Our homegrown look at the American GEFS model shows that the precipitation forecast from the average of many versions has held steady. Each line represents a forecast from a different time, with the more recent times being the darker lines. When all the lines are close to each other, confidence in the outcome increases. This is for Aspen Highlands.

The storm on Thursday into Friday (and maybe into Saturday) has all the ingredients for significant snowfall. Of course, things can go wrong. Any of the factors I mentioned above could change. We're still 4-5 days away, which is plenty of time for all of the models to flip flop and give us heartburn.

If this storm comes through for us, it'll be the kick in the pants we need to get the season moving. 

If the storm doesn't come through for us, I would then start getting somewhat worried about terrain availability for the busy period at the end of December.

After this storm on Thursday/Friday/Saturday, our next chances for snow will be from a weaker storm around December 14-16 and maybe another stormy period around December 18-20.

Looking out to the 18th and beyond, there are some signs that point to maybe more stormy weather during the last 1/3rd of December, but I hate to rely on a 15+ day speculative outlook to get us set up for the busy holiday period. That's why we need this storm on Thu/Fri/Sat to come through for us.

I'll keep you updated.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains