Summary:

• Snow falls heavily Saturday night, 4-7 inches for most mtns
• Snow continues Sunday through Monday night
• Total accumulations should be 12-18+ inches in northern Colorado
• Best powder days Sun/Mon/Tue AM

Details:

There are no big changes to the forecast through Tuesday, though the forecast for later next week (Thanksgiving) has changed quite a bit.

Friday and Friday night: Not much going on. A few more clouds with a snow shower possible over the San Juans. During this time, all of the action will to our west as a large storm over the North Pacific ocean moves onshore.

Water Vapor satellite image. Source: Weathertap.com

Saturday: Increasing clouds and breezy by the afternoon. There will be a few snow showers during the afternoon, but only Steamboat may see some accumulation during the daylight hours since they are further north and west and would be first to see the impacts from the cold front.

Saturday night: Snow showers will increase, then look for a period of heavy snow as the cold front moves across the state. This heavier snow should start at Steamboat around early evening, then hit the I-70 mountains through central Colorado in the late evening (9-12pm, ish), and then move into the San Juans just after midnight. Most areas should see a healthy amount of snow from the first part of this storm, around 3-6 inches, though I could see perhaps 7-8 inches in a few spots.

Sunday: Continued off-and-on snow showers. It won't snow heavily the entire day, but there will be strong snow squalls mixed with a few minutes of sun. Look for another 2-4 inches for most areas in central and northern Colorado.

Sunday night through Monday: The Northwest Flow (<-- sure, let's capitalize that!) will continue to work its magic and bring moderate to heavy snow to the central and northern mountains (generally from Aspen north to I-70 and Steamboat). This will be a great day to ski, if you like powder.

A wave of energy will move across Colorado late Sunday night through Monday and this should enhance the snow. Another 4-7 inches is likely during this time, and I wouldn't be surprised for some areas to generate up to 10 inches, especially near Steamboat, Cameron Pass, and Vail Pass which can all do very well in northwest flow. Not to be outdone, Loveland, Breck, Copper, and Winter Park can also do well with this pattern, and if the wave of energy is strong enough, Telluride/Silverton in the San Juans could get the goods, plus Monarch and Aspen wouldn't do too bad either. Basically, in this pattern, the further north and/or west the mountain is located, the better.

Monday night through Tuesday: Snow should continue through Monday evening but will likely trend lighter by Tuesday AM, which should be a great powder morning as well. By midday Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon, I could see the snow stopping altogether, or perhaps we'll see light snow in the northern mountains but with rising temperatures. The already fallen snow should begin to settle and may feel thicker by afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday: Snow likely stops and we'll see warmer temperatures compared to the chilly conditions on Sun/Mon/Tue AM.

Thursday: Ha, who knows. The European model, the gold standard in terms of accuracy, showed a healthy band of snow moving through on Thanksgiving Day. It showed this for 8 out of the last 10 model runs (a new forecast is produced every 12 hours). When the European model is that consistent, it's almost always right, even if the American GFS model doesn't agree. Well, last night the European model did a complete flip to a completely dry forecast for Thursday. I can't remember another time I've seen it flip like this from the European, though the American GFS model flips all the time, which is why I don't trust it as much as the European. So the gist is that I have no clue about Thursday. Maybe good snow, maybe a bit of snow, maybe dry and sunny, maybe turkey, mashed potatoes (mmmm!), and football. One of those things is more certain than the others...

Beyond Thursday, I think we'll see drier weather for the weekend after Thanksgiving. The Pacific Ocean still looks active into early December so that's a good sign in the longer range, although with the European model flipping like it did for Thursday, only six days away, at the moment I'm not inclined to trust any forecast beyond that time.

JOEL GRATZ

PS - Want an early holiday / festivus present? We're giving away a pair of Wagner Custom Skis! Enter the contest here.