Before getting to the forecast, let's look at a few recent photos.

Of course, when we saw our first widespread snow of the season this past weekend, the crew at Silverton jumped into action and made a few high-elevation turns.

Further north, both Loveland and Abasin began making snowing during the past few nights. Here is what Abasin looks like this morning, with machine-made snow covering part of the lower mountain.

Does the machine-made snow pass the moose sniff test? We'll never know.

Storm #4

The fourth storm of this young season is spinning over Arizona on Wednesday morning, and it will track northeast over Colorado on Wednesday night into Thursday.

The forecast radar from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning shows the storm moving northeast, with the heaviest and steadiest precipitation tracking over the southeastern half of Colorado.

Because this storm is coming from the southwest, temperatures will not be very cold. I think the snow level will hover around 10,000 feet. During times of lighter precipitation, the snow level will rise, and during times of heavier precipitation, the snow level will drop. An average snow level of 10,000 feet is just below treeline for most mountains.

Total snowfall from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon will look something like this.

If you draw a diagonal line from southwest to northeast through Colorado, areas to the right of the line will see more snow and areas to the left should see lighter amounts.

Most mountains should get 2-4 inches, and amounts of 4-8+ inches should fall over the southern mountains (Silverton, Telluride, Wolf Creek, maybe Purgatory) as well as Monarch.

I have lower-than-average confidence in the snow amounts going into this storm because these cut-off storms, tracking from the southwest, tend to wobble a bit, and this wobble can make the precipitation track in unexpected ways.

For example, here is the total precipitation forecast made 24 hours ago. There is a bullseye over Wolf Creek, showing 1.0-1.5 inches of precipitation, or about 10-15 inches of snow.

Below is the updated forecast, made 12 hours ago. The heaviest precipitation is shifted well east, and Wolf Creek is now forecast to receive about 0.6 inches of precipitation or about 6 inches of snow.

This large shift in the forecast, only about 12 hours before the storm, is why I have low-ish confidence in exact amounts. But it's September, so the exact snow forecast doesn't matter yet because most of us aren't planning a Thursday pow day:-)

Following Storm #4 on Wednesday night and Thursday, we should see showers on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with a snow level around treeline (10,000-11,000 feet).

Storm #5

A fast-moving storm, our fifth of the season, will then clip the northern half of Colorado on Saturday night into Sunday. The snow level could drop down to 9,000 feet or a bit lower, and the best chance for snow will be from about Aspen north to I-70 and Steamboat. Most of the northern mountains will receive a quick burst of a few inches of snow.

Next week

It looks like next week will start cool in the wake of Storm #5, and then we'll warm up through the week, potentially seeing temperatures rise 15-20 degrees from Monday to Friday. About a week ago, it looked like late September and early October would be warm. In reality, late September is staying cool and active, but the warmer weather should make it here by October 4-6th, ish. I cannot promise dry weather next week, though, as moisture from the southwest might create showers, which would mostly fall as rain based on the warmer temperatures.

Thanks for reading all of these pre-season updates. We'll get to pow days soon enough!

Next post on Friday 9/29...

JOEL GRATZ

Party in Boulder

Join me in Boulder on Thursday to have a bite, grab a drink, and talk about cat & heli-skiing. The goal for the night is to share a bunch of knowledge about how to pick a great cat or heli trip in Colorado, British Columbia, or Alaska. See more info and RSVP on our event pages:

Boulder, Thu, Sep 28
https://www.facebook.com/events/2043562782529422/

PS - We had a great night in Denver on Tuesday ... the room was packed!

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains