This Friday-night radar image shows the storm bringing rain and snow from California along a line to the northeast over Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.

Over the next 12-24 hours, this moisture will push into Colorado, and we'll have a chance for snow each day through Wednesday morning.

Saturday

This will be a teaser. Temperatures will be warm with snow levels around 8,000-9,000 feet in the north, and 10,000 feet in the south. Snowfall will be scattered around the central and northern mountains – some areas will see bursts of snow, other areas will be dry.

Saturday night

There is a legitimate chance for powder in very northern Colorado on Saturday night into Sunday morning. It appears that the best storm energy will stall over the northernmost mountains, roughly along a line from the Flattops through Steamboat to Cameron Pass and maybe just clipping Rocky Mountain National Park and the northern Indian Peaks.

Here is the Saturday-night snow forecast from the high-resolution CAIC 4km model:

As with any high-resolution model, don't put too much emphasis in the exact placement of the highest snow total or the zero totals. Instead, look for the trend, which is for a narrow band of deep accumulations across the mountains between I-70 and the Wyoming border. This area could see 5-10+ inches on Saturday night alone, leading to the possibility of powdery backcountry turns on Sunday morning.

Elsewhere on Saturday night, there could be at least a few inches from roughly Crested Butte north to I-70, so there is a chance for fresh snow on Sunday morning at Loveland and Arapahoe Basin, the two resorts that are currently open.

Sunday and Monday

The heavier snow on Saturday night could linger into Sunday morning, then I think we'll return to a the more scattered nature of the snow that we saw on Saturday.

Monday night through Wednesday morning

The second round of storm energy will bring colder air, and this should lead to another period of at least moderate snow accumulation. This time, all mountains should see snow. I think Tuesday-day and/or Wednesday morning still presents a decent chance to enjoy a few turns through fresh pow.

Total accumulations

Most mountains will wind up in the 5-10 inch range. This storm is NOT taking a favorable track for most of Colorado, so while I am excited about the long duration of the storm, I want to keep expectations in check.

The most snow, 10-20+ inches, should fall in the mountains west of Crested Butte and Aspen, near Irwin and Marble. Also, the Flattops west-southwest of Steamboat, along with Steamboat and Cameron Pass, should see the deepest totals.

The map below is total precipitation forecasted by the European model. Multiply the numbers by about 10 to estimate snowfall.

Next Wednesday afternoon, Thursday, and Friday should be dry.

A fast-moving storm could bring moderate snow totals and cooler air to Colorado on Saturday, November 11th. After that, the pattern will stay active in the northwestern US, and if we get lucky, some of those storms will make their way to Colorado. It's too early to say much else.

For perspective, our snowpack in Colorado is roughly 50% of average (lower in the south, higher in the north). This next storm will push us closer to average, but we'll likely stay below average by the time that the last flake falls. The deepest snowpack is in the northwest.

If, through mid and late November, the active storm track over the northwest sags south toward Colorado, we'll be in business. I am cautiously optimistic that this will happen based on some hints in longer-range models, and the logic that the jet stream shifts south as we get closer to winter. But of course, forecasts beyond 7-10 days have little skill, so don't let my optimism go to your head:-)

Next update on Sunday morning ... hopefully we're talking about pow!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co

Next Talks

Bentgate Mountaineering in Golden on Wednesday, November 8th. See you there!
https://www.facebook.com/events/1209665705844183/

Mountain Chalet in Colorado Springs on Wednesday, November 15th. See you there!
I'll post more details soon

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains