Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 6 years ago December 13, 2017

Snow Thursday morning and Sunday morning

Summary

We are going to get lucky as two weak storms will drift closer to Colorado than previously thought and should provide a few inches of natural snow on Wednesday night and again Saturday night with the best accumulations of 3-5 inches falling along the divide in the eastern mountains. Looking ahead to next week, it's likely that Colorado will see additional snow between about December 21-26th though there is no way to know the details of the storms 10+ days into the future.

Short Term Forecast

For the past 10 days, the weather pattern across the US was cold air and storminess in the east and warmer air and dry weather over the west. Colorado was on the edge of the cool and stormy weather over the east, and all we needed was a bit of luck to have the cold air and storminess press westward just a few hundred miles and we'd get snow.

I am happy to say that luck is on our side as it appears that the upcoming storms will push just far enough west to bring snow to Colorado.

This westward push was something that only the most recent models caught on to.

Below is the 78-hour weather pattern forecast for Thursday morning, made on Monday morning. Notice how Colorado is in the warm colors, which generally means that the Thursday morning snowfall would miss us to the east.

Below is the 24-hour weather pattern forecast for Thursday morning, made on Wednesday morning. Notice just a slight westward shift of the white color, and how the black lines now bulge west over Colorado. This shows that the model is bringing the storm more directly over Colorado. A shift of ~300 miles is small potatoes for the atmosphere but means a lot to us here on the ground.

Snow is coming!

For the first time in a while, there is something to look at on radar. This is from Wednesday morning, showing snow over Montana and Idaho, heading southeast toward Colorado.

Expect snow to start in the northern mountains between Wednesday 6pm-10pm and then the snow will wind down on Thursday morning with perhaps another inch or two falling on Thursday in scattered showers.

The CAIC WRF 4km model shows a reasonable representation of the snow forecast with most mountains getting a coating to 2 inches and areas closer to the northern divide likely coming in between 3-5 inches.

There is still a wide range in the forecasts, though. This makes sense because if the models shifted the storm 300 miles west in the past 1-2 days, it means that the models do not have a good handle on the details of the storm and there will be some surprises.

The ensemble forecast from the American GFS and Canadian models show this range for Loveland with accumulations between 1-7 inches on Wednesday night and another 1-9 inches on Saturday night. The average of the forecasts (the thicker line) shows about 4 inches on Wednesday night and 4 inches on Saturday night. This looks about right to me.

And one more forecast, which is for Copper from the NCAR Ensemble model. This shows a range of 1-4 inches on Wednesday night with an average of 3 inches.

Bottomline – there will be fresh snow on Thursday morning and Sunday morning with a coating to 2 inches for most mountains and 3-5 inches for areas near and along the northeastern divide (areas that are favored by winds from the north). These storms will not create big powder days, but every flake helps, skiing soft snow is fun, and each storm will cool temperatures which will help with snowmaking and the opening of a bit more terrain. We'll take it!

Extended Forecast

Following the storm on Saturday night and Sunday (still lots of uncertainty with that one, stay tuned), we should see dry weather between about December 18-20th, then things will become more interesting.

Between about December 21-26, most models show more storminess settling around Colorado, so expect more snow, though I am sorry to say that I have no clue how the storm or storms will track.

We might see a system hang to our southwest which would benefit the southern mountains. We might see another storm or two swing in from the north (like this week's storms) and benefit the northern mountains. Or we might get really lucky and see a combination of these storm tracks which would bring snow to all of Colorado. Or we might get unlucky and none of these storms will take a favorable track for snow in Colorado.

Lots of options, little confidence right now.

At least the 8-14 day outlooks from NOAA show Colorado in the category of above-average precipitation and near average temperature.

The best case scenario is a lot of snow during the December 21-30 period with a lot of terrain opening. The worst case scenario is that we get a little bit of snow and there is a little expansion of existing terrain due to colder temperatures and snowmaking.

If you're a local here in Colorado, you will ski powder and a lot of terrain this season, you'll just need some luck from the atmosphere to do this soon.

If you are coming to Colorado for vacation over the next two weeks, hope for the best with new snow but focus your expectations on things that you can control, like time with family and friends and activities other than skiing (there is a lot to do ... snowshoeing, hot springs, etc).

Thanks for reading, and hope to see some Boulder/Denver folks at my 10 year anniversary party on Monday, December 18th (see below for details)!

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

10-Year Anniversary Party!

Monday, December 18th at West Flanders in Boulder, CO at 700pm

* I wrote my first snow forecast email titled "Colorado Powder Forecast" on December 18, 2007.

* Ten years (and lots of powder days) later, let's party.

* I will give a short talk to start the night off.

* Wear your Colorado Powder Forecast t-shirt and I'll buy your drinks:-)

* Happy hour prices all night

* Details and RSVP: https://www.facebook.com/events/836050909911243/

 

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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