Last weeks rain and warmth really did a number on the low elevation snowpack, especially in the French Alps. Some snow in the next few days will help a title bit, but the big storms we need are still a ways out.

Forecast for Thursday 12/29 - Friday 12/30

Well at least we’re moving in the right direction. Snow will start this evening and continue through tomorrow.  Temperatures will be on the warm side, but nothing like the last storm. Precipitation should stay snow at most resorts. Totals will be modest, with 10 - 15 cms for most of the western Alps, and perhaps a few higher elevation resorts coming in at 15 - 25 cms, by the time the snow tapers off on Friday. Below is the snow forecast from the European model. 

Forecast for Saturday 12/31 - Tuesday 1/2

Another break, and another period of anomalous warmth. From Saturday to Tuesday conditions will remain dry and temperatures will rise. The peak of this warmth will occur Saturday to Sunday, when temperatures could rise to 15 degrees C above normal. Look at the gif below of the temperature anomalies during this period. This shows how much above normal temps will be. Those brown colors are for temps 8-11C above normal, the white colors indicate 12-14C above normal, and the pink is greater than 15C above normal.

This is exceptional heat, and we’re not happy about it. 

Forecast for Wednesday 1/3

Late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning the next storm will start. This round of snow will focus on the central and eastern Alps, with modest totals. Expect 5 - 15 cms with perhaps a little more at higher elevations, as seen in the European forecast below. 

Outlook for Thursday 1/4 - Monday 1/8

After the small storm on the 3rd of January things look to dry out again. Perhaps some light snow around the 5th but all eyes are now on January 7th-8th,, where the models are picking up on a possible storm. The American and European deterministic models both have a strong storm around this time, although at ten days out, these models are not very reliable. The models that are more reliable in the long range, the ensembles, are showing this storm too. Both the American and European ensembles show significant snow during this time, as shown below.

The models show similar patterns in the upper atmosphere, as well, as expected, since they both have substantial snow storms during that time. You can see the similarity below. 

Thanks for reading the forecast. Follow me @lstone84 on Instagram to track and chase storms all Winter long!