Forecast for Friday 3/3 - Monday 3/7

Before the exciting storm next week, we have to get through a mostly dry and boring weekend. Temperatures will be seasonal at first, before a cold front ahead of the storm arrives Saturday night, bringing with it the chance for some light snow across the Austrian Alps. 

Forecast for Tuesday 3/8 - Fri 3/10

Snow should pick up Tuesday afternoon in the Austrian/Swiss Alps, and fill in to the west in the French Alps overnight. Snow quality will be good at first, with he cold air in place from the front that arrived over the weekend. However, on Wednesday, a warm front will approach from the south, increasing snow levels from around 900m to 1500 m as it moves north and crosses the Alps. This will result in an upside down storm, with dense snow on top of light snow. In addition to not skiing/riding as well, this will present greater avalanche concerns as well. By Thursday afternoon/evening, snow levels will have risen across all of the Alps, although not quite as high in Switzerland and especially Austria. 

Still, despite the warming temperatures during the storm, snowfall totals should be significant, especially in the French Alps and along the France/Switzerland/Italy border. The American model is a bit cooler than the European model, but both still show well over a half meter with this storm. You can see how each model handles the snow totals below.

Another notable difference between the two models is how far east the heaviest snow gets, with the European model bringing significant accumulations to the central and eastern Alps as well.

I will have another update on this storm in a few days, and fine tune the details a bit more.

Outlook for Saturday 3/11 - Wednesday 3/15

Once this this storm wraps up, the models are split on the pattern to follow. Typically, when looking for the pattern more than a week in the future, I look at the ensembles. Unlike the normal deterministic models I look at, which produce one solution based on one set of initial variables, the ensembles produce a large number of solutions based on many different sets of initial data. For the mid month pattern, the American deterministic, American ensembles, and the European ensembles all keep an active snowy pattern going in the Alps. The outlier, at the moment, is the European deterministic model. I will be watching closer to see if this model caves to others, or vice versa. 

Thanks for reading the forecast. Follow me @lstone84 on Instagram to track and chase storms all Winter long!