Europe Daily Snow
By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 4 months ago October 4, 2023
After a brief cool down this week, high pressure and warms temps return to Western Europe. Scandinavia will see some snow in the short term, as well as Georgia in the mid to long range. While I don't see signs for a major pattern change, the location of the ridge may shift just enough to bring some activity to the Alps and more likely the Greater Caucasus Range in Georgia.
Short Term Forecast
After a record setting warm September across much of Europe, a weak storm has brought a temporary cool down and some showers to central Europe. Snow and rain showers continue in the Georgian mountains as well for the rest of this week. The ridge will quickly return though, once again pumping in warm air and routing storms to Scandinavia and eastern Europe.
Below is the mid-level pattern today. The blue colors in the north represent a low pressure system that is just big enough to allow for some showers in the Alps today.
As the ridge builds back in and strengthens, storms will be diverted north towards Scandinavia, and then east towards eastern Europe. Norway, Sweden, and Iceland will see accumulating snowfall during this time.
The ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend, shifting the storm track farther north over Scandinavia, allowing it to dig farther south and east as well.
This will bring chances for snow in Scandinavia initially, as a result of a storm under cutting this straightening ridge, followed by the chance for snow in the Greater Caucasus Range in Georgia as well.
You can see the snow forecast for Georgia below.
Finally, toward the end of next week, around Friday the 13th, the ridge will finally start to weaken and start moving eastward.
This will then allow the storm track to become more progressive and west to east, begin to sag farther south, bringing the chance for showers back to the Alps. This will also bring more snow to Norway, Sweden, and Iceland during this time.
Overall the pattern during this entire period is not for snow in the Alps or Pyrenees. The mid-level setup around the 8th is good for snow in Georgia, and for the Nordic countries starting around the 11th.
In the long range, the models show the pattern from the weekend of the 13th sticking around for several days. This would keep most storms north of the Alps, with more activity for the Nordic countries. There are some indications that the storm track could sag far enough south in the middle of the month to bring snow to the Alps, but model agreement is lacking. Until I see more support for this, it remains a remote possibility.
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