Earlier this week, Germany saw an incredible show of the northern lights. In this post, we will check out some of these shots and take a quick peek at the long range models for any signs of snow.
Short Term Forecast
The Northern Lights are not visible very often in Germany. Typically, they are visible in polar regions, farther north, such as in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. However, earlier this week, the Northern Lights were visible in Northern Germany, and even as far south as the Alps.
Let's check out some of these amazing shots below from across Germany.
Those are some really amazing shots.
As far as the forecast goes, there is nothing to get excited about. It's only September though, so my search for snow is more just looking for something to get excited about. This time of year, I am primarily looking at the pressure anomalies (departure from the norm) in the middle of the atmosphere. Low pressure areas are typically associated with storms, while high pressure areas equate to warm and dry conditions.
The image below shows the five day average pressure anomaly in the middle of the atmosphere, ending on 10/3. The orange and red colors over Spain and France indicate that the pressure in this region on average over the next five days will be higher than normal. This equates to a ridge, which blocks storms and typically results in warm and dry conditions.
Similarly, the same is shown below but for the five day period ending 10/8.
We see a similar pattern, with higher pressure over Western Europe. Over eastern Europe we see some of the contour lines becoming more convex, as well as the colors showing neither above or below the norm. This indicates that during that five day period there may be a storm system moving through this region. It looks like it may be too far east to impact the Alps, but Georgia could see some snow.
The country of Georgia is located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia. It is bordered by the Black Sea to the west, Russia to the north, Azerbaijan to the southeast, and Armenia and Turkey to the south.
The Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountain ranges in Georgia experience significant snowfall during the Winter. The snowfall in these regions can be heavy, with great skiing and riding conditions. There are several resorts as well as amazing backcountry operations.
Although snowfall forecasts during the seven to ten day period is typically not very reliable, I will post the map as an illustration of what can be gained by looking at the pressure anomalies in the mid atmosphere. Below is the snow forecast for Tuesday 10/3 to Sunday 10/8. You can see some snow in the Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountain ranges.
Below I have zoomed in a bit closer.
While I wouldn't bet the mortgage on these exact totals, the mid-level pressure map I shared above indicated there was potential for storms during this time, in this region. Check it out again, this time with the low pressure system noted as well as the proximity to Georgia.
This was the mid-level pattern from the European model, but looking at the American and Canadian models as well, they too show a storm in a similar location at a similar time. Overall, I think there is a good chance for a storm in this region, but whether it will be cold enough for snow is uncertain.
Ok, that's all for now. I will keep an eye on this potential Georgia snow and when we may see some sings of winter in the rest of Europe as well.
Thanks for reading the Europe daily snow! Follow me @lstone84 on Instagram to track and chase storms all year long!