For several days the models were in good agreement on the upper-level low tracking south over the Alps. Initially, west/southwest flow ahead of the low would favor the French Alps. As the system crossed the Alps, the flow would shift to the south and bring heavy snow to the southern Alps including Italy and Austria.

Over the last twenty-four hours, the models have this low staying more to the north, resulting in limited or perhaps no southerly flow. This would shift the focus of the storm significantly, from favoring the southern Alps to favoring the northern Alps, as most storms have done this season. Given this uncertainty, I am going to hold off on the totals and timing for now. Instead, let's just take a look at how the upper-level pattern has changed over the last day and a half. 

All three major models have seen a huge shift in the storm track in the last twenty-four hours, as you can see below.

The models keep the storm track much farther north, putting the focus back on the northern Alps. With such a drastic change since yesterday, I want to see how the models have this storm playing out under this new scenario over the next day or two.

After the storm this weekend, active weather should continue into the following week. The models agree on more storms for the Alps, likely continuing to favor the northern Alps.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow