The models have come into better agreement for the pattern during the next five days. The storm track during this time will remain to the north of the Alps with minimal impacts. The southern storm the models were showing around the 30th is staying well north. However, beyond five days, some of the models are once again bringing a storm south through the Alps around January 1st/2nd. This could begin an active period with several storms following this track. 

The next few days remain dry, as ridging over Italy keeps the storm track well north of the Alps and Pyrenees. On Thursday night the ridge will weaken and move off to the east, allowing the storm track to get a bit closer. This will result in periods of showers from Thursday night through Sunday for the Swiss and Austrian Alps, with only minor impacts. Snow levels will range from 1250 - 1500 m during this time. No more than a few cms of snow are expected during any twelve-hour period.

The models agree that on Sunday the 31st one of the storms tracking to the north will come close enough for a moderate event. Right now, this looks like a 5 - 15 cms storm for the northern French and Swiss Alps, and < 10 cms in the western Austrian Alps. This round of precipitation should wrap up Monday morning, with snow levels around 1500m. Check out the latest snow forecast from the European model for this storm below.

Beyond this storm, the models begin to diverge. Some of the major models have another storm fast approaching the western Alps, starting Monday night, but taking a southerly track. The others keep this storm a bit farther north. Again, this would be the difference between the main impacts being in the southern French/southern Italian/Austrian Alps or the northern French/Swiss/Austrian Alps. This event is still more than five days away so we will have to give it a bit more time, but it does have the potential to bring significant snow. 

Regardless of the exact track of the storm early next week, the models have more storms lined up beyond that. There are no signs of this active pattern shutting down any time soon. 

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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