It’s time for the southern Alps, in Italy and Switzerland, to get a big dump. The southern French Alps will do well in the storm also, while the northern Alps from France to Austria, will generally see lesser totals. A fast-moving trailing wave, however, will add to the totals on the northern side of the Alps from Monday night through Tuesday. 

Well, it looks like the models won’t be making a last-minute northerly shift with this storm, and a solid Sudstau is on the way. Winds will be predominantly out of the south, and this will favor the southern Alps of Italy and Switzerland.

These southerly and southeasterly winds combined with the geography of the Alps can create a convergence zone, enhancing the snow totals even further, in the areas shown below.

During this part of the storm, the Italian Alps from the Biella to Vicenza regions, as well as the southern part of the Grabunden region in Switzerland, will be the bullseye. These areas should see 40 - 80 + cms from this system.

As the storm arrives, winds will be out of the southwest, allowing the southern French Alps to rack up some big totals as well. 

In the Hautes-Alpes and Alpes-Maritimes, expect 30 -  60 cms courtesy of those southwest winds at the start of the storm.

Along most of the Italian border from France through Switzerland, 20 - 40 cms are expected. Outside of these regions, snow totals will be considerably less, especially in the northern Alps of Switzerland and Austria. As the storm begins to depart the region, however, winds will shift to the west-northwest/northwest allowing these areas to reach decent snow totals.

The latest snowfall forecast from the European model is below.

Snow will taper off from west to east Monday morning. This is not a particularly cold storm, with snow levels generally starting around 1800 m and gradually falling to 1500 m by Sunday. Winds don’t look like too much of a concern with this storm, with the worst of it occurring in the western Alps in the early stages of the storm.

After a short break on Monday, a trailing wave will move through the Alps and bring another round of snow. This system will feature northwest winds and bring around 10 - 20 cms to the northern Alps of France, Switzerland, and Austria Monday night through Tuesday.

From the middle of next week and beyond, a ridge will develop over Northern Europe. This should take the storm track south of the Alps and Pyrenees for the time being. The latest guidance has this ridge breaking down around the 21st, though the following pattern doesn’t look overly promising at this time. 

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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