The models are starting to come into agreement regarding the timing and initial structure of the storm cycle arriving this weekend. We are now looking at the first in this series of storms getting underway on Sunday evening as a strong upper-level low drops down from Scandinavia.

This storm will feature an impressive airmass, with cold temperatures more common during mid-winter. The models don't agree on the timing of this arctic air, but generally, they show temperatures 10 - 14 degrees C below normal. This will help these storms deliver big snow totals with high snow-to-liquid ratios for much of the storm.

Below is the temperature anomaly for November 20th from the American Model, which shows temperatures as much as 17 degrees C below normal.

While the models have aligned on the timing and initial setup, they begin to diverge pretty quickly as the first storm reaches the Alps. Below you can see the upper-level patterns are fairly similar on Sunday evening.

But just a day later the European and American models differ significantly. The American model has the tough digging farther south into the Alps while the European model takes more of a glancing blow. This would result in significantly different snow totals for this first storm. 

The models only diverge more from there, with the European model bringing the second storm much farther west than the American, which would also result in substantial differences in snowfall especially concerning the location. 

So, while I remain confident of a big snow-producing storm cycle, the details are still not clear. I don't feel confident getting into the timing, location, and specific totals with this storm until the upper-level patterns are more aligned. 

This cycle is still on track to last through most of next week and into the weekend. One final wave is possible early next week as the upper-level trough expands over nearly all of Europe before starting to depart the region. This would be the end of the storm cycle which will be followed by a ridge developing over southwestern Europe.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Next post on Friday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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