We've seen the models become more aligned over the last twenty-four hours, increasing confidence in the upcoming storm cycle. Two broad upper-level troughs will settle in over northern Europe that will send multiple waves of snow toward the Alps and Pyrenees.

However, the models have trended weaker and farther east with the first storm in the cycle, now favoring the eastern Alps. This system would impact the eastern Swiss Alps and the Austrian Alps from Sunday night to Monday night. Below is the latest snow forecast from the European model, showing 5 - 15 cm.

This more easterly storm track would result in winds from the west-northwest, which are less favorable than winds from the north/northwest that are more perpendicular to the mountain barrier. 

The second deep upper-level low (storm #2) is expected to set up farther east than models previously showed but will still be far enough west to favor the western Alps. Once this broad low-pressure system develops, it will send a series of short waves toward the Alps. Overall, the location of the broad low-pressure system and the smaller short waves swinging around it will bring west/west-southwest winds (favors the southern French Alps and to a lesser degree the northern French Alps) initially followed by west-northwest winds (favors the northern French Alps and Swiss Alps) as the system moves to the east. 

At the start of the GIF you can see the first storm tracking through Austria and the eastern Alps. Then, as the second storm sets up over the western/central Alps, the additional pulses can be seen as ripples in the contours and in the green colors. Each one of these pulses will bring additional energy that will keep heavy snow going or turn light snow back to heavy snow. 

Below is the latest snow forecast from the European model for this period of storm #2. In the higher elevations of the northern French Alps, western Swiss Alps, and the northwest Italian Alps in the Valle d'Aosta, 40 - 80 cm is possible during this phase of the storm. For much of the French and Swiss Alps, 30 - 60 cm is expected. Totals decrease farther south in the French Alps and farther east near the Switzerland/Austria border. 

The models do show a possible final wave from storm #2, around Saturday morning, as it moves off to the east, but they don't agree on the details just yet. Although there will be a warm-up between storms 1 and 2, overall they will be very cold and feature high snow-to-liquid ratios. It is worth noting that as the second storm initially moves into the western Alps, a period of very strong winds is likely. 

Next, another deep upper-level low-pressure system will head toward western Europe around Tuesday of the following week, but this time it will be coming from the west, off the Atlantic. This is typically not a cold storm track. This potential storm is around ten days from now, so model accuracy is not great and therefore confidence is low. 

If the latest model data holds, we will see a significant warm-up prior to and at the onset of this storm. These systems that originate in the Atlantic often come with abundant moisture, and an atmospheric river is likely in this scenario. Even if the atmospheric river itself breaks down over western Europe prior to reaching the Alps, the storm will still have a deep moisture tap. 

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Next post on Sunday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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