After weeks of Summer-like weather, we had a brief return to winter last week and we'll have much more of that starting next week. After a quick-hitting system to start the week, at least two strong stroms are targeting the Alps. Starting next weekend, additional storms are possible with the potential for more accumulating snow. 

First, we’ll have a quick-hitting storm Sunday night through Monday that will drop up to 10 cm in the Austrian Alps, with just some snow showers farther west. On Tuesday afternoon, a strong and deep low pressure will develop over Western Europe before settling in over southern Scandinavia. This low will close off, then become cut off from the predominant flow, and remain over Europe for several days acting as a dominant circulation center with several waves rotating around it. 

The first round of snow will occur as the low is becoming closed off while moving through the western Alps and will bring winds primarily out of the west, before transitioning to west-northwest.  These winds will favor the northern French Alps, the northwestern Italian Alps in the Valle d’Aosta, and the western Swiss Alps. Even as this area of low pressure initially moves through the western Alps, some smaller shortwaves will rotate around the parent low adding additional energy to this phase of the storm.

For this first part of the storm cycle, 30 - 70 cm are expected above 2000 m in the northern French Alps, the northwestern Italian Alps in the Valle d’Aosta, and the western Swiss Alps. Farther into the southern French Alps and east into the central Swiss Alps, 20 - 50 cm is possible, with 15 - 40 cm in the eastern Swiss and western Austrian Alps. Totals will drop off quite a bit in the central and eastern Austrian Alps as well as the southern part of the southern French Alps. 

Snow levels will be around 1500 m to start, falling to around 300 m or lower by Thursday. For the second phase of this storm cycle, snow levels will initially climb back up to around 900 m before falling once again below 300 m. These two rounds of snow will feature very cold temperatures, the kind expected during a particularly cold mid-winter storm, and high snow-to-liquid ratios. Temperatures are expected to be between 10 and 15 degrees C below normal.

Snow will become more showery in nature Wednesday night and Thursday, but additional accumulations are expected. 

The second part of this storm cycle arrives around Thursday afternoon, turning any snow showers back to heavy snow. Winds will be similar, though potentially a bit more southwest to start with a faster switch to northwest. This initial period of southwest/west-southwest winds will bring some heavier totals into the southern Alps. Overall though, this storm will be more of a Northweststau, with heavier totals in the eastern Swiss and western Austrian Alps. From the northern French through the central Swiss Alps, expect another 30 - 70 cm, with 20 - 50 cm in the eastern Swiss and western Austrian Alps. Like round one, totals drop off farther south and east, with around 5 - 15 cm expected in the central and eastern Australian Alps and far southern French Alps.

Below is a look at the totals from both storms through Saturday from the American model. Overall I think this model is a bit overdone on totals, but handles the track of the second storm best.

The models have another storm around next weekend into early next week, but the agreement is not there just yet. A fourth storm is possible later next week as well. We definitely need some more time to figure out how these storms might impact the region.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Next post on Monday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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