There aren't many changes to the forecast, with all the major details staying the same. A strong and deep upper-level low will develop in western Europe, stall near Scandinavia, and deliver two rounds of heavy snowfall to the Alps. The Pyrenees will be too far south for major impacts, but some modest accumulations are expected there as well. 

The main changes over the last day or so are related to the second period of heavy snow. Most models showed more of a Nordwestau-type setup with better snow totals farther east, in the eastern Swiss and western Austrian Alps. The European model had a more southerly digging trough of low pressure which would favor the northern AND southern French Alps as well as most of the Swiss Alps, with less snow in western Austria.

The models have trended towards the European, shifting the zone of deepest totals for the second wave of this storm cycle. The more southerly track brings a bit more west-southwest flow to the French Alps which benefits the southern French Alps most. In the GIF below, you can see the subtle difference in the storm track between an older run from the American model versus the latest European model run. 

With the rest of the forecast on track, let's take a look at the snow totals from each phase of this upcoming storm cycle. The accumulations for the first round of snow are shown below.

The accumulations for the second round of snow are shown below.

You can see the biggest totals in the northern/southern French Alps and the western Swiss Alps. Below I will share a variety of snow forecasts from some high-resolution models so you can get an idea of the possibilities now that we're in range.

The high-res models agree that the jackpot is in the northern French Alps in the Savoie and Haute Savoie regions, the Valle d'Aosta region in the northwestern Italian Alps, and the far western Swiss Alps. They all show 1 - 1.5 + m in these regions. Further, they agree that .5 - 1 m is likely in the central Swiss Alps and the northern part of the southern French Alps.

They all look great! Let's sit back and enjoy this very cold, long-duration storm for the next five days.

It looks like the next storm, around Monday of the following week, will track north of the Alps. If it gets far enough south we could see some impacts but the models don't agree on the track just yet. There are some signs of a ridge developing later next week, but the models don't agree on that location either. For now, let's watch the snow pile up and worry about next week later.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Next post on Tuesday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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