Europe Daily Snow
By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 month ago November 19, 2024
Minor Flip Flopping Continues, It's About to Get Deep
Summary
The big storm is now underway, with light snow falling in the northwest Alps. We've got two rounds of heavy snow this week that will drastically change the landscape across the region. No major changes in the models over the last twenty-four hours but there are a few minor tweaks to discuss. Keep reading for the details.
Short Term Forecast
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Alps and Pyrenees 10-Day Forecast
As often is the case, the models moved back toward the previous solution that was being shown for several days. For the second storm, heavier snow totals are once again expected to extend from the northern French Alps through the western Austrian Alps. A small shift back to the north will bring a longer period of west-northwest winds and better dynamics into western Austria.
Similarly, the southern French Alps will see a shorter period of favorable west-southwest winds and worse dynamics, so totals have come down a bit. With this flip-flopping, I am not inclined to trust any of it, but perhaps the western Austrian Alps will see a bit more snow. Below are the four high-resolution models I showed yesterday, this time alternating between yesterday's forecast and today's forecast.
You can see all four have increased the snow totals in the western Austrian Alps.
Otherwise, temperatures may rise a bit higher between storms than previously thought. Snow levels will climb to around 300 - 1200 m from east to west between western Austria and the northern French Alps. This shouldn't impact things too much given the overall very low snow levels during this storm cycle.
Totals in the Pyrenees still look minor. Most models have between 5 - 20 cm in the upper elevations of the central Pyrenees. Certainly not the blockbuster we'd like to see but its better than nothing.
Extended Forecast
A ridge is now expected to build in this weekend, causing the region to warm up significantly and dry out. This will direct storms to the north. The models generally show a storm making it far enough south to impact the Alps between Monday and Wednesday with a modest storm.
Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!
Next post on Wednesday.
Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow
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