Snow Totals:

New snowfall from Monday-Monday night ranged from 5-7 inches across the higher elevations of the Tetons and 2-3 inches across the lower elevations. Snow-liquid ratios have been around 11:1 (9% density). 

Here are the 24-hour snow totals as of early Tuesday AM:

• 7" - Jackson Hole Rendezvous Bowl
• 7" - Grand Targhee Chief Joseph Bowl
• 7" - Surprise Lake (GTNP)
• 6" - Jackson Hole Raymer Plot
• 5" - Jackson Hole Mid-Mountain
• 4" - Togwotee Pass
• 3" - Snow King
• 2" - Jackson Hole Base

Forecast for Tuesday to Tuesday Night:

Lingering moisture on the backside of Tuesday's storm will result in additional snow showers during the morning hours before tapering off in the afternoon with partial clearing expected. Winds will also be relatively light to moderate out of the west/southwest.

Highs on Tuesday afternoon will reach the low 20s at 9,000 feet and upper 30s in the valley. Plan on hitting the slopes early in the day while the snow is fresh.

A little bit of moisture will arrive from the south late Tuesday night, resulting in light snow showers developing, mainly across the Southern Tetons (Teton Pass to Jackson Hole) and Southern Jackson Hole Valley.

24-hour snow totals on Wednesday AM's report will likely range from 1-3 inches in the Tetons and a trace to an inch in the valleys.

Forecast for Wednesday to Saturday:

Back-to-back storms will impact the Tetons during this 4-day stretch, resulting in a long-duration period of off-and-on snow.

The first storm will involve an area of low pressure approaching from the south on Wednesday with light snow showers in the morning giving way to more widespread snow in the afternoon and overnight hours. Winds will be out of the south initially but will turn westerly on Wednesday evening.

An unstable atmosphere could also result in locally heavy snow showers on Wednesday afternoon.

We will be in a moist westerly flow from Thursday morning through Thursday night as moisture lingers from Wednesday's storm with no obvious clear breaks in between storms as the next arrives from the Pacific Northwest by later Thursday.

Snow will continue through Friday and a cold front will arrive around midday which will likely lead to an uptick in wind speeds along with a heavier burst of snow. We will remain in a westerly flow behind the front as well with periods of snow continuing into Friday night.

A moist west/northwest flow will linger into the daytime hours on Saturday resulting in additional snow shower activity. This activity will likely be more orographic (terrain-enhanced) in nature, favoring the higher terrain with only light snow showers/flurries down low.

Snow Totals:

Total snowfall from Wednesday through Saturday will range from 12-24 inches (1-2 feet) in the Tetons above 8,000 feet and 3-8 inches in the valleys. Snow King will pick up 4-11 inches.

Keep in mind that some melting of the new snow will likely occur in the valleys during the afternoon hours given how strong the sun is (even with significant cloud cover) in late March.

Here is how I am generally expecting the day-to-day snowfall totals to play out:

This forecast goes out to 5 days from now, so stay tuned for daily updates and adjustments to the snow forecast as needed. 

Snow Quality and Temperature Trends:

This will be a good cycle in the sense that temperatures will generally be trending cooler throughout the event, though there will be some minor variations in temperatures from day versus night, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.

Snow-liquid ratios will start out around 11:1 on Wednesday, then will increase to 13:1 on Thursday and 15:1 on Friday and Saturday (higher snow-liquid ratios = drier/more powdery snow).

High temperatures at 9,000 feet will peak in the mid 20s on Wednesday afternoon, low 20s on Thursday, and only the low teens on Friday and Saturday. Valley high temperatures will reach the upper 30s on Wednesday, mid 30s on Thursday, low 30s on Friday, and mid 20s on Saturday.

Wind:

Ridgetop winds will initially be out of the south on Wednesday, then will become west/southwest from later Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon, and due west on Friday night and Saturday.

For most of this cycle, ridgetop wind speeds will range from 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph. However, stronger winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph can be expected during the daytime hours on Friday.

Skiing Conditions:

This is going to be a fun cycle and I expect skiing conditions to get better each day from Wednesday through Saturday. Keep in mind it is late March so variable conditions can still be expected, especially in south-facing terrain and lower-elevation terrain. But overall, conditions should be outstanding by late in the week. 

Travel Conditions:

Winter conditions featuring a mix of snowpacked, slushy, and icy roads can be expected over the pass from Wednesday through Saturday. Valley roads will be snowpacked, slushy, and icy in the mornings with melting occurring during the afternoons. 

Blowing/drifting snow concerns will be relatively minor and isolated for most of this event, except on Friday when stronger winds could lead to an uptick in blowing snow compared to prior days.

On Sunday (March 26) and Monday (March 27), temperatures will be well-below-average for late March with highs in the low/mid teens at 9,000 feet and upper 20s/low 30s in the valleys. We will see enough lingering moisture and instability to result in a chance of snow showers both days, primarily during the afternoon hours, but additional accumulations should be light.

We may dry out around the middle of next week (~March 28th-30th) as the European and GFS Models both project the next storm to deepen from north to south well off the West Coast, keeping moisture confined to the Cascade and Sierra Nevada Ranges.

However, this isn't a sure thing yet as the Canadian Model is projecting the storm to stay closer to the coast with moisture and energy reaching the Northern Rockies. So I would say there is a slight chance of snow during the middle of next week, with a higher likelihood of a drier period along with moderating temperatures.

Looking further out, we could see a more active pattern return around March 31st-April 1st.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (March 22).

ALAN SMITH