Forecast for Thursday:

Heavy cloud cover is present throughout the region on Thursday morning, with a combination of overcast mid to high-level clouds and patchy low-level clouds/fog in the valleys. 

Moisture levels are significant by our standards, but the cloud cover is going to keep temperatures cooler and the atmosphere more stable, thus reducing our potential for afternoon thunderstorms. I wouldn't rule out a thunderstorm (especially in the off-chance we get any afternoon sun), but I think it's unlikely.

However, occasional light showers will be possible during both the morning and afternoon hours, so pack a rain jacket if you plan on heading outside today. Showers will generally move in a southeast-to-northwest direction.

Showers will also be possible during the evening and overnight hours, and I wouldn't rule out an overnight t-storm either as a quick shortwave disturbance is expected to move through overnight.

Forecast for Friday:

Slightly drier air will arrive on Friday morning, allowing for more sunshine to start the day along with warmer temperatures heading into the middle part of the day compared to Thursday.

However, an abundance of lingering moisture along with increased daytime heating and instability will result in a good chance of thunderstorms. In fact, I wouldn't rule out a storm as early as 11am with a better chance of storms expected from noon through late afternoon/early evening. Conditions should then clear out overnight.

Storms will move in more of a south-to-north direction (or slightly SSE to NNW) and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, hail, and heavy rain.

Outlook for Saturday to Sunday:

The weekend should be pretty nice overall with mostly sunny skies during the morning to midday hours along with pleasant/warm temperatures. However, scattered thunderstorms can be expected during the afternoon hours both days with frequent lightning and locally heavy rain possible. 

Of the two days, Sunday afternoon looks a bit more active than Saturday afternoon in terms of overall thunderstorm activity as a new area of low pressure will be moving into the Southwest/West Central U.S.

Outlook for Monday (June 12) and Beyond:

Moisture levels will remain elevated on Monday and possibly Tuesday with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms expected.

During the middle to second half of next week, a trough of low pressure is projected to move in from the northwest.

I'm not exactly sure how this is going to impact our weather compared to recent weeks just yet, but I suspect we'll still see some shower/thunderstorm chances along with stronger winds across the higher terrain. However, it doesn't look like any significant cooldowns will accompany this system.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (June 9).

Alan Smith