Storm Update and Forecast for Thursday:

Snow totals so far (as of 5am reports) have ranged from 1-3 inches in the Tetons, while the valley has picked up a half-inch to an inch.

More specifically, both of Jackson Hole's upper plots have picked up 3 inches of snow and the mid-mountain plot 2 inches. Targhee is reporting an inch. 

Snow will continue throughout the morning with some occasional lulls in the action. Short-range models are indicating the heaviest snowfall rates will be from roughly late morning through early to mid-afternoon, with a transition to more intermittent snow showers from late afternoon to early evening.

Additional snow totals (beyond what was already reported at 5am) will range from 2-6 inches in the Tetons, favoring the southern end of the range (JHMR and Teton Pass), and a trace to 2 inches in the valleys.

Projection from a blend of weather models:

Statewide, the Winds, Salts, Gros Ventres, and southwest portion of Yellowstone look to see the deepest totals with limited snowfall east of the Continental Divide (perhaps a few inches in the Bighorns).

Snow on Thursday will become wetter/denser, but given the timing of the heavier snowfall, I expect early afternoon to have the best conditions. It will be a storm skiing day, however, with southwest winds gusting to 35-50 mph at 10,000 feet. As a result, higher elevation lift holds are a possibility.

Friday morning will offer better visibility and lighter winds, so conditions will be improved in that regard. However, only light snow is expected after lifts close on Thursday with snow tapering off on Thursday night. So inbounds conditions may already be tracked out by Friday morning.

Forecast for Friday:

A lull in the pattern is expected with only some isolated light snow showers/flurries in the afternoon that will be convective in nature due to lingering moisture and instability (moist air near the surface heating up and rising).

Skies will be mostly cloudy, but the sun will peak through occasionally which could heat up the snow quickly on south-facing aspects and lower-elevation terrain. High temps will reach the upper 20s at 9,000 feet and low 40s in the valleys.

Winds will also be much lighter out of the west/southwest at 5-15 mph at 10,000 feet.

Forecast for Saturday:

Models are starting to come into better agreement on the weekend pattern. It's still a fairly messy setup, but we have a better idea of what to expect now compared to prior forecasts.

A trough of low pressure will be located off the California Coast, slowly working its way south over time. The first of two shortwaves (or what we can also refer to as "weak storms") will arrive from the south on Saturday morning, resulting in off-and-on snow showers mainly during the daytime hours.

I'm expecting the Tetons to pick up 1-3 inches of new snow from Saturday's round, with snow starting medium-density on Saturday AM before turning wetter/denser on Saturday PM. Also, winds out of the south will favor the southern end of the range (JHMR and Teton Pass) more than Targhee.

The Jackson Hole Valley could also pick up some light accumulations on Saturday morning (half-inch to an inch or so).

Skiing conditions on Saturday will be best above 8,000 feet in north-facing and more protected terrain (this is especially true if we see any sunny stretches on Friday). Winds will also remain light during the day.

Most of the snow shower activity will taper off by late in the day with a lull expected on Saturday night.

Forecast for Sunday:

The second "weak storm" will arrive during the day on Sunday, possibly as early as the early morning hours. This storm will be somewhat stronger than Saturday's and will an area of low pressure ejecting out ahead of the California trough and into the Intermountain West.

As this low approaches Wyoming, we will see southerly winds initially on Sunday, possibly transitioning to westerly winds toward the end of the event on late Sunday afternoon/evening on the backside of the low as it moves across Wyoming.

Wind directions are always tricky around these smaller/more localized circulations, so any small changes in the track of the low could impact the snow forecasting moving forward.

For now, I think the most likely scenario is for the Tetons to pick up another 3-6 inches of snow from Sunday morning through Sunday evening. The southern end of the range (JHMR and Teton Pass) will be more favored once again, though Targhee may be able to sneak in some better accumulations toward the end of the storm if the period of westerly winds with lingering moisture comes to fruition.

Temperatures will remain relatively mild on Sunday and snow quality will be on the denser side as a result. Skiing conditions should be pretty good in many areas above 8,000 feet, but it will vary somewhat depending on aspect, exact snow amounts, and whether or not we see any sun on Friday or in between rounds on Saturday/Sunday. 

Outlook for April 1st-7th:

Warmer and drier conditions with more abundant sunshine can be expected from Monday (April 1) to Wednesday (April 3) as high pressure builds over our region. A transition to spring skiing conditions will occur as a result.

Wednesday looks like the warmest day with highs reaching the low 40s at 9,000 feet and mid to upper 50s in the valleys. 

The next storm is expected to arrive from the northwest around Wednesday night-Thursday (April 4) and a shot of much colder air is also expected with this storm.

Late next week (April 5th-7th), a generally unsettled pattern is expected with additional snow shower chances, but details are highly uncertain at this time. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (March 29).

Alan Smith 

Important Dates:

Snow King – CLOSED for the season (but open for uphill access)

Jackson Hole Mountain Resort – Closing Day April 14

Grand Targhee – Closing Day April 21

Grand Teton Park Road – Re-opens to foot and bike traffic only in early April (estimated)

Grand Teton Park Road – Open for cars on May 1

Static Peak and Other Winter Wildlife Closures – in effect until May 1

NEW: Snow Ratio Forecast

You can now get a good idea of the upcoming snow quality for the next storm via our new "Snow Ratio" forecast for any location in OpenSnow.

When we talk about snow quality, such as “light and fluffy” or “heavy and wet”, we are talking about the snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher the snow-to-liquid ratio, the lighter the snow quality, and vice-versa.

1. Go to any location screen and tap the "Snow Summary" tab.
2. Scroll down to the 5-day hourly or 10-day forecast section.
3. View the 5-day hourly or daily "Snow Ratio" forecast for the next 10 days.

10:1 will be fun but will feel a little heavy. 15:1 will offer some faceshots and feel pretty light. 20:1 will be incredibly light, almost like skiing through nothing but air.

This new feature is currently available with the latest version of the OpenSnow iOS app installed (App Store > OpenSnow > Update) or on the OpenSnow website (OpenSnow.com). It will be available in the OpenSnow Android app soon.

View → Snow Ratio Forecast