Wednesday - Saturday

Mostly calm, sunny weather is in store for the next few days. Highs will be increasing through Friday with base temps in the 40's by Friday before cooling off into the mid 30's again on Saturday. Our chances for any snow are pretty much zero between today, Wednesday, January 25th and Saturday January 28th. 

North East to even East winds are likely through Thursday. Winds will be strongest over the summit between 20 - 50 MPH today on Wednesday. Gusty winds up to 40 MPH will continue on Thursday. Winds subside on Friday into the 15 - 20 MPH range out of the Northwest and may strengthen slightly on Saturday ahead of the next system out of the West and Southwest. 

Sunday - Monday 

We finally have our first shot at real snowfall starting Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday temps will drop rapidly into the 20's and that will continue with even lower temps on Monday in the teens. Gusty Southwest winds pick up on Sunday so you can expect upper mtn lift closures. Gusts up to 60 MPH during the day are possible. 

By Monday winds come down quite a bit and should only be gusting up to 25 MPH out of the East Northeast. 

Overall this will not a big storm as it tracks mostly over land with little moisture to work with. The best thing we have going for us is the very cold temperatures to bump the snow ratios up much higher than normal. Instead of our average 9 - 12:1 ratios we'll be working with 15 - 20:1 ratios. So even half an inch of liquid will yield at least 7 - 8 inches of snow on the low end. 

Right now I'm seeing a little over half an inch of liquid forecasted. My initial forecast is for 6 - 9 inches of snow at Main Lodge and 9 - 11 inches of snow up top. Cold storms can often overdeliver because you don't need much moisture for the snow to just keep accumulating when it's cold. So we'll see how it all plays out over the next few days. 

After the storm clears out Monday morning, January 30th I believe we're going to see another break in the action. It's likely to warm up into the mid to upper 30's by the 1st of February next week. A ridge will build over the West Coast and prevent any moisture from reaching us until later next week. 

The models are still struggling with the exact timing, track, and intensity of any additional storms after the 1st of February. At this point I have little to confidence of any details other than the chances for snow do increase going into the 3rd through the 5th of February. 

I believe we could see a moderate storm that first weekend of February or a weaker one, and that highly depends on whether or not a system will track far enough South and bring enough moisture from an overwater trajectory vs an overland one. Only time will on that one. 

I will keep you posted all week as the pattern is evolving and changing into at least a more active one. 

Till the next one... Mike out. 

"Fresh Tracks!
This week The Flakes talk about the Snow Returning to the Northeast, chat with Julien Ross about the Great Snow in New Mexico, report Snowfall Around the rest of The U.S., look at the Snowfall Forecast for The Upcoming Week, and discuss the Long-Range Snowfall Patterns."