Summary
Mostly sunny and clear weather for Sunday & Monday. We will see increasing winds by Monday afternoon as the next storm approaches. Tuesday we'll see heavy snow and strong winds. Wednesday & Thursday snow showers hang around the region for light accumulations. The first weekend of April is still looking unsettled with snow showers possible.
Short Term Forecast
Sunny Sunday & Monday
The sun will be out on Sunday & Monday and temps will be cool for late March. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20's across the mtn, while on Monday as the warmer Southerly air enters the region we warm up close to 30 degrees.
Clouds will be passing through on Monday as the next storm makes it's presence known. Winds on Sunday are gusting up to 35 MPH this morning out of the West Northwest. By Monday they will shift out of the West Southwest. They are likely to increase in intensity by Monday afternoon gusting up to 45 MPH. Lift closures due to wind aren't likely but it could be pretty blustery out there in the later part of the afternoon.
Tuesday Storm
The storm is still on track to hit us on Tuesday morning. At this time it looks like the heaviest snowfall will come in later in the day on Tuesday and overnight on Wednesday. Temps on Tuesday will drop into the mid 20's and the winds will be very strong over the summit. 70+ MPH gusts out of the South Southwest are expected.
Tuesday will be a stormy and snowy day with strong winds, low visibility, and heavy snowfall especially later in the day. It's likely we'll see plenty of lift closures and part of the mtn closed.
Snow Ratios should average over 11:1, so it will be a drier and lighter snow, especially up top. While most of the snow falls on Tuesday I'm going to lump in the snow showers on Wednesday into the forecast for this storm.
Wednesday Showers
The models have been struggling with figuring out how to handle this system and whether or not it continues to spin down the coast and produce periods of snow showers. Today, they are showing that more showers are possible instead of Wednesday morning but on Wednesday night.
Either way Wednesday looks unsettled. We could see peaks of sun when the clouds aren't overhead. Winds should also drop down significantly into the 30 - 40 MPH range. Temps will stay quite cold with low 20's and teens across the mtn.
The total precip for this system is around 1.6 to 2.2 inches. With 10:1 ratios that would be 16 to 22 inches. Because of the orientation of this system and the more Southerly flow I'm expecting to see a bit more shadowing in our region.
My forecast by Thursday morning remains unchanged at 13 - 17 inches for Main Lodge and up to 22 inches for the summit.
Thursday
We could continue to see snow showers on Thursday in the morning. Accumulations won't be significant as the system will be exiting at this time. Temps will remain on the cooler side with highs in the 20's. Winds will be lighter in the 15 - 20 MPH range out of the North. By Friday morning we could see an additional inch or 2. It's likely we see peaks of sun on Thursday as well in between the morning showers.
Extended Forecast
The models suggest we could see partly clouds skies over the 1st weekend of April. But they are also showing a system dropping into the Northern part of the state in the Tahoe region. Several model runs as we saw yesterday showed the system dropping down far enough for snow showers on Saturday afternoon. That idea is still present, but with more mixed signals on how far down the storm drops into the state.
You can expect Friday to be more sunny and Saturday to have sun and clouds with more breezy conditions with West Southwest winds up to 30 MPH. By Sunday we could see even stronger winds and a better chance of snow showers. All of this is a week out so it's subject to change. The first week of April also continues to look unsettled...
I'll keep you posted on the details of the 1st weekend and beyond as we get closer.
Till the next one... Mike out.
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