Mammoth Daily Snow
By Mike Korotkin, Meteorologist Posted 10 months ago May 8, 2023
Moisture... But Rain?
Summary
Winter takes a back seat after Tuesday. We may see a final round of afternoon rain/snow showers on Tuesday afternoon before we begin to warm up Wednesday through the end of the week. Next week a return of more moisture is looking likely but it may not be snow...
Short Term Forecast
May has been very active so far. Last week we were in full winter mode. We've recorded 10 inches so far! That's more than all of April and we're only one week into May. Will we get more going forward? Will we breach the fabled 900 inches on the summit? We're at 898 currently...
Only time will tell and mother nature has reminded us all Winter (and now Spring) that she is definitely in charge. I have a feeling that it's not quite over yet but let's get into the forecast.
Next 5 Days
Monday should be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30's. Winds are quite gusty on the summit out of the West Southwest up to 50 MPH. That will continue.
Tuesday we could see moisture pop up over the mtns. The GFS is considerably more bullish with the moist scenario and because of that we could see snowfall later in the afternoon and evening. If the GFS is correct we really could see another inch of accumulation up on the summit. But unfortunately I have no guarantees of that as this moisture is of a convective variety.
Thunder and lightning are possible Tuesday afternoon so be aware of that as you're planning any skiing and riding in the afternoon. Temps could be in the upper 30's at the base. Winds are also forecasted to come down significantly.
Wednesday through Friday we'll see a true return to Spring with temps warming into the 40's and then mid 50's by Friday and into the weekend! Yes, a full melt will return. We had a week and a half of Winter and now Spring will be back... The question is for how long. Very sunny days with limited clouds or winds are in the forecast.
Extended Forecast
Going into next week the models suggest we could see more moisture once again the form of pop up afternoon storms. Check out the GFS Ensemble runs below:
That's a lot of members that suggest we could see real totals next week... but what it all be rain? Right not it's looking warm, with highs in the upper 50's so the odds of snow at Main Lodge will be very low and even on the summit it will be cutting it close, if not completely impossible.
So we'll have to see. The weather might be active but not in the snowy way...
I'll keep you posted one way or another..
Till the next one... Mike out.