The weather remains dry and seasonable until Friday, November 25th when a round of two storm systems will pass through the region. These storms will bring warm air and rain to the region with a few snow showers behind each system with minimal snow accumulations. Several resorts are still planning to open up this weekend. Read on to see what will happen this weekend…
Short Term Forecast
Opening days are approaching for several resorts this Holiday weekend. Despite the dreary weather expected for the weekend, low temperatures remain below freezing allowing snow making to add snow on the slopes. Snowshoe in West Virginia opened on Tuesday, November 22nd with clear weather, great vibes, and smooth turns.
Thursday will see similar weather with high clouds beginning to move into the region ahead of the next storm system. The Holiday weekend will feature two storm systems. Part one of two storms will bring scattered rain showers on Friday. Let’s look at these rain showers via the NAM 12km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 4 am Friday, November 25th to 7 am Saturday, November 26th.
This storm system will bring 0.1 - 0.5 inches with more in the southern Mid-Atlantic. A few backside snow showers are likely in the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning but will have minimal snow accumulations.
The second of two storm systems moves into the region from the south late Saturday and early Sunday. This storm system has seen a lot of attention over the last week and it looks like it will pass through the region and slightly to the north. This means warm air will likely move into the region, bringing more rain.
This storm system is still far away and both models (GFS and Euro) continue to show slightly different storm tracks. The Euro model continues to show a more southerly storm track and the potential for a few pockets of cold air with mixed precipitation and snow. The Euro has shifted to the GFS over the last couple of days. The GFS shows a track on the north side of the region with widespread rain. Let’s look at the GFS model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 7 pm Saturday, November 26th to 4 pm Monday, November 28th.
This storm system will have more moisture associated with it and bring 0.5 - 1 inches of rain. Isolated pockets of more and less precipitation are expected. There will be backside snow showers again with minimal to light snow accumulations in the northern Mid-Atlantic.
Looking into the extended forecast, the weather pattern to the end of November and begin December will see storms moving through and to the north of the region. Storm systems are tracking into the Pacific Northwest Region, which signals a northerly storm track throughout the United States.
Let’s look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern from 4 pm Monday, November 28th to 1 am Thursday, December 1st.
The cool colors show cooler temperatures and favorable conditions for precipitation and the warm colors show warmer temperatures and a northerly storm track for the region.
The pattern remains unfavorable for snow in the extended forecast through Thursday, December 1st. Despite this, looking even further for hope, there are indications of another pattern shift, which could bring more winter weather to the region at the beginning of December.
Stay tuned for more updates this weekend, I will have the next forecast Thursday morning.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
Ski Resorts that are OPEN:
NY: Hunter Mountain and Windham
PA: Blue Knob
Projected Opening Dates:
Friday, November 25th - Belleayre, Greek Peak, Holiday Valley, Kissing Bridge, Labrador, Song Mountain, Windham (NY), Seven Springs (PA)
Friday, December 2nd - Jack Frost/Big Boulder (PA)
Saturday, December 3rd - Sawmill (PA)
Saturday, December 10th - Plattekill (NY), Wintergreen (VA)
Friday, December 16th - Liberty Mountain, Roundtop, Whitetail (PA)
Saturday, December 17th - Hidden Valley (PA)
Thursday, December 22nd - Homestead (VA)
Friday, December 23rd - Laurel Mountain (PA)
NY: Bristol Mountain, HoliMont, Holiday Mountain Fun Park, Mount Peter, Peek'n Peak, Swain Resort
NJ: Campgaw and Mountain Creek
PA: Bear Creek, Big Bear, Blue Mountain, Boyce Park, Camelback, Elk Mountain, Montage Mountain, Mount Pleasant, Shawnee, Spring Mountain, Tussey Mountain
WV: Canaan Valley, Timberline, Whitegrass, and Winterplace