Scattered rain will continue to fall in the region on Wednesday and bring light rain accumulations. Despite this dreary weather over the past couple of days, people are still getting after it on thin slopes. Check out Holiday Valley on Tuesday!

It is definitely not ideal conditions on the slopes right now, but trails remain open at several resorts so there is terrain to be had. 

Thursday will be partly sunny with seasonable temperatures and maybe a passing flurry in the northern Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will get back to below freezing on Thursday night, which will allow resorts to get back on snow-making operations. 

The next storm system continues to track toward the region on Friday and Saturday but will not strengthen as the last forecasts indicated. There still remains an area of PA and NY that could see precipitation if a narrow area of rain and snow can develop. Model disagreement is making this a tough forecast since some models show no snow and some are hanging to light snow accumulations in PA and NY. 

Let’s look at the GFS and NAM 12 km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity at 1 am Saturday, December 10th.

Despite such sharp differences in the two models, other atmospheric details in the forecast show a more likely scenario of the NAM 12 km, with very little precipitation. In order to cover all of my ends, I will keep the possibility of the chance for light snow in parts of PA and NY at 1-3 inches in the forecast. 

Another chance of snow moves into the region on Sunday, December 11th as a weak storm system passes through the northern Mid-Atlantic. This storm has a better chance to bring light snow accumulations to northern PA and NY. 

Here is a look at the Euro model’s probability of snowfall greater than 1 in from Saturday, December 10th to Monday morning, December 12th. 

The upcoming forecasts will be key to seeing how models align on a solution so stay tuned for more updates! 

Looking into next week starting on Monday, December 12th, dry weather and above-average temperatures are expected to move into the region. This is a change from my last few forecasts, as the storm track continues to stay to the north, despite model indications otherwise in previous forecasts. 

One reason why the extended forecast has not materialized to snow for the region is that storms are tracking through California and the Pacific Northwest at different times and moving in different directions. This makes a long-term forecast past a week hard to predict. 

Once a storm reaches the west coast, it is roughly 4-6 days out from affecting our region. This is why a forecast of less than a week is so much easier to communicate. 

What I do know is that a large storm will be moving across the country early to mid-next week. This storm will track to the north of our region by Wednesday and Thursday, December 14th and 15th. Here is a look at the GFS model’s upper-level pattern on Wednesday, December 14th, and the likely storm track.  

Behind this storm, cold air will likely move into the region with the possibility of lake effect snow. Beyond that, there are still indications of the jet stream moving south of our region, and toward a favorable pattern for snow. It is still early and the last few weeks have shown us to take an extended forecast with a grain of salt. 

Thanks for reading, and I will have the next forecast Thursday morning. 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.