Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago January 23, 2023

Snow exits Monday, more to come this week

Summary

Snow is still falling and accumulating in many areas of the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Totals are still being measured, but it looks like the northern Mid-Atlantic saw some good snow, and it is still coming down. Snow exits Monday evening, but some light lake effect will continue north on Tuesday. The next storm brings a mix of rain and snow on Wednesday and Thursday. Let’s break it all down…

Short Term Forecast

This storm system is moving slowly and still bringing accumulating snow to many areas. The heaviest snow will clear the northeastern Mid-Atlantic after 2 pm on Monday, adding 1-4 inches. Meanwhile, lake effect and upslope snow showers are beginning to ramp up and will continue to fall in the western and northern Mid-Atlantic on Monday. These snow showers will dissipate Monday evening. 

A quick-moving storm system will add some moisture to the northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and bring light snow showers throughout the day. These snow showers will weaken Wednesday morning before the next larger storm system affects the region. 

Here is a look at the NAM 3 km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 10 am Monday, January 23rd through 7 pm Tuesday, January 24th.

Here is a look at the NDFS model’s snow accumulations from Monday through Wednesday morning. 

The main attention this week will be a large storm system impacting the East Coast on Wednesday and Thursday, January 25th/26th. This storm will be moving directly through the region and as always, the track is key for where the rain-snow line sets up. There is a strong likelihood that there will be an initial accumulation of snow in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic with a changeover to rain or mixed precipitation, as well as backside snow that could extend to the eastern Mid-Atlanitc. The southern Mid-Atlantic will be out of luck again for this storm. 

The greatest uncertainty regarding this storm is the track. Any slight change to the south would allow for more snow accumulations, and a track further north brings more warm air. Here is a look at the Euro model's depiction of potential locations of the storm system on Wednesday evening, January 25th. 

The “L’s” on the map show the potential locations of the storm system. The black circles show the potential locations of the storm systems center (track). 

The key to snow accumulations in this storm is if/when the coastal storm can develop. If it does like in the Euro model above, this would delay a changeover to rain and mean more snow accumulations north and west. If the coastal low develops later into Thursday, warm air will win. Here is a look at the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model’s probability of snowfall greater than 3in with this storm.

The GFS has a warmer solution and produces lighter snow accumulations. Backside lake effect and upslope snow showers will fall behind this storm on Friday, January 27th.  

Extended Forecast

The storm track will stay active in the extended forecast. A weak storm tracking in from Canada will add some snow showers throughout Saturday, January 28th to the northern half of the region. Not a major storm by any means, but it should make slopes fresh this next weekend. 

The next storm will impact the East Coast Sunday into Monday, January 29th/30th. This storm will be larger and the storm track is still up in the air. Models are indicating another track through the region, which means someone should see snow accumulations, but also rain. 

Here is a look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Saturday, January 28th to Wednesday, February 1st. 

The cool blue colors show the first weak storm on Saturday, January 28th. We then transition to a storm track through the region, depicted by the barrier between cool (blue) and warm (yellow) colors. 

Have a great Monday and start to your week. I will have the next forecast Tuesday morning. 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow. 

About Our Forecaster

Zach Butler

Meteorologist

Zach Butler is currently a PhD student in Water Resources Science at Oregon State University. He just finished his master's in Applied Meteorology at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire. Originally from Maryland, he has grown up hiking and skiing up and down the East Coast. When not doing coursework, he enjoys cooking and exploring the pacific northwest on his bike.

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