Gusty winds will be the main story Sunday, with a few flurries in NY. A weak storm will move an area of rain and snow on Monday afternoon through northern PA and NY. Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely by Tuesday morning in the Catskills. Additional chances of light snow in NY are possible next week. Let’s break it all down…
Short Term Forecast
It has been a rainy few days that has soaked slopes, but people are still getting out there with a couple more weeks left in the season. We are hardy East Coast skiers and will stay out there until resorts have shut down. The forecast will improve this week with a couple of chances of snow.
Sunday will see a few flurries in the northern Mid-Atlantic and have minimal impacts and accumulations. Winds will be gusty in excess of 40 mph Sunday morning and will weaken throughout the day as temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s with clearing skies.
A weak storm system will move an area of precipitation through most of the region on Monday afternoon. Temperatures on the north side of this storm will be below freezing, allowing light snow in northern PA and NY. The area of precipitation will move out to the east Tuesday morning. Here is a look at the NAM model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 1 pm Monday, March 27th through 8 am Tuesday, March 28th.
Snow will not accumulate much on Monday due to the high late March sun angle. Snow will continue Monday night, which means 1-3 inches of snow will accumulate for the higher terrain. At this point in the season, the higher terrain will be favored to see the most snow, which means head to the Catskills! Here is a look at the NAM model's snow accumulations on Monday and Tuesday.
Another area of precipitation could develop on Tuesday in WV, which might bring some light snow but will not accumulate much if it does fall. Otherwise, Tuesday and Wednesday will be nice days throughout the Mid-Atlantic with seasonable temperatures. Clouds will increase from the northwest on Wednesday as the next storm system tracks well to the north into Thursday.
This storm system on Wednesday evening will swing an area of precipitation associated with a cold front through the northern Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night. An area of light snow is likely with potential snow accumulations of 1-2 inches. Check out the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity on Wednesday evening, March 29th into Thursday morning, March 30th.
Following Thursday, March 30th storm system, we will see a warm-up into the April 1st and 2nd weekend and a large storm system tracking across the county. This large storm system could have a lot of rain with it, but the timing of it is still uncertain.
Let’s take a look at the extended probability of precipitation at Hunter Mountain. The graphic below shows the GFS model’s expected precipitation every 3 hours from March 25th - April 4th. The red box over the blue bars shows the large rain event coming the April 1st and 2nd weekend.
Following this storm system, there will likely be an area of cold air moving in from the north, which could bring some snow showers to the northern Mid-Atlantic.
That is all for this forecast, thanks for reading, and I will have the next forecast Monday morning.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
Here are some resorts where I’ve been able to keep track of projected closing dates and which ones are still open with no closing date information yet.
Project Closing Dates:
March 26th - Wisp, MD. Elk Mountain, PA. Sawmill, PA. Shawnee, PA
March 27th - Timberline, WV (subject to change)
April 2nd - Snowshoe, WV. Windham, NY.
April 9th - Holiday Valley, NY.
Resorts that are still open with no closing date announcement yet:
NJ: Mountain creek
NY: Belleayre, Bristol, Buffalo Ski Club, Greek Peak, HoliMont, Hunter, Kissing Bridge, Labrador, Peek’n Peak, Song, Swain
PA: JackFrost/BigBoulder, Blue Mountain, Camelback, Montage Mountain, Seven Springs