Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 3 months ago November 29, 2023

Lake Effect Exits, Next Storm on Friday and Saturday

Summary

A solid lake effect event is exiting the northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday morning. This snow and added snowmaking throughout the region, has started bases at many resorts. The next storm will bring mostly rain and some snow to the north on Friday and Saturday.

Short Term Forecast

Some much-needed winter weather has brought snow to many resorts throughout the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest snow fell in the northern Mid-Atlantic due to lake effect snow bands. Other areas through the central and western Mid-Atlantic saw light snow accumulate as well.

Below is a look at the observed snow totals as of Wednesday, November 29th.

For resorts that did not see much or any natural snow, snow guns are firing throughout the region. Check our Beech Mountain in NC on Tuesday evening. 

Forecast on Wednesday and Thursday:

Winds have shifted to the southwest on Wednesday morning, which means lake effect bands have shifted and will not bring any more snow to resorts. Temperatures will stay below freezing, which means more snowmaking will continue throughout the region.

Thursday will be mostly dry, with a few flurries possible in the northern Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will warm above freezing.

Below is a look at a new graphic thanks to Croix the Midwest forecaster, showing the favorability for snowmaking conditions at Snowshoe in WV through Thursday morning.



Forecast on Friday and Saturday:

A storm system will be tracking through the center of the Mid-Atlantic. This track will keep warm air for a majority of the region, bringing light rain amounts. Precipitation will fall through Friday with a break during the evening, then some more light precipitation on Saturday.

If the storm center can be just far enough to the south through southern PA, cold temperatures will allow the higher terrain of the northern Mid-Atlantic to see light snow. Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible with moderate confidence in this. 

Below is a look at the Euro model’s ensemble probability of snow accumulations greater than 1 inch on Friday and Saturday.

Forecast on Sunday: 

The forecast becomes uncertain on Sunday, December 3rd. We will have two storms moving toward the region. One storm will move through the Great Lakes and another will move off of the East Coast. It looks like the Great Lakes storm will be the main driver, which means warm air will push through, bringing mostly rain.

If the coastal storm can gain strength, we could see colder air and heavier precipitation. The chances of accumulating snow are low right now, but not 0. Below is a look at the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity on Sunday, December 3rd.

Extended Forecast

The forecast gets interesting on Tuesday, December 4th, and Wednesday, December 5th. A sharp dip in the jet stream is forecasted to be associated with a storm system, which could develop and strengthen along the coast. The good news is that we could have cold air to bring snow throughout the region.

This is the first time this season I have seen a chance of snow throughout the region and something to watch. The forecast is still far away and I have low confidence right now, but we will definitely want to keep an eye on it.

Below is a look at the Euro ensemble's model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Tuesday, December 5th through Wednesday, December 6th.

 

The blue colors show cooler air that will be associated with the storm track. 

Thanks for reading, the next update will be on Friday.

Zach Butler

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About Our Forecaster

Zach Butler

Meteorologist

Zach Butler is currently a PhD student in Water Resources Science at Oregon State University. He just finished his master's in Applied Meteorology at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire. Originally from Maryland, he has grown up hiking and skiing up and down the East Coast. When not doing coursework, he enjoys cooking and exploring the pacific northwest on his bike.

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